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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alohal who wrote (152446)	1/27/2000 4:28:00 PM
From: edamo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

alohal...i don't think you are wrong at all! never did understand thompson i-watch...... think a lot of backing and filling and swapping between large institutions.... this is the first wave of selling, should recover, shudder again and then stabilize...it's typical, look at lu recently, blew off, snapped back, blew off again, stabilized and moving up on good buy volume... hopefully dell is under accumulation now, should clear a bit of overhead resistance out...needs to get comfortable in the 35-40 range, and try to notch up.... momo is gone, slow mover, unless "mikey" reinvents the company as carly did with hwp.... dell now considered by the market in the same class as cpq...wouldn't be surprised to see cpq and dell stock valued very closely....spread is narrowing... as kemble says (where oh where is he?) causes much pain....in business, as in life, when you wish the worst on your adversaries, be they honorable or not, the worst tends to happen to you! nothing beats a man like overconfidence..........or inadequate evaluation of data!

To: Alohal who wrote (152446)	1/27/2000 4:30:00 PM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Alohal, RE: I thought Thompson's reported on the super buy and super sell orders, which are all large block orders (I believe 10K or more). Today the whole chart is nothing but blue super buy messages. Thus I conclude that the institutions are net buyers. Where have I gone wrong? In several places. First, when a block crosses at the offer, Thompson's records it as an institutional buy. It could in reality be an institutional cross (buy and sell) or an institutional seller and several retail buyers. None of these happens in greater proportion than the others. In addition, a lot of sharp institutional traders hide their tracks when accumulating stocks by buying in 5M share blocks, flying under the radar. Finally, you should note that the average institution underperforms the market. So even if this statistic was reliable (and it most decidedly is not), institutions do not perform any better than a retail buyer, so why bother trying to trace their tracks anyway?

To: Alohal who wrote (152446)	1/28/2000 5:04:00 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Alohal - What a day... Your post mirrors my own thinking. The explanations of management don't seem to add up with the data yet, which is more of a concern to me than the actual shortfall. Perhaps it will be more clear when the actual earnings come out. My current thinking is to wait a bit until the dust settles since I have puts on 90% of my position (42.5s and 40s). If things get ugly over the next few weeks, I will execute my puts and get down to a small DELL holding (that would leave me with 6K shares) and watch for a chance to buy DELL calls. This could be a great chance - if the stock really does drop into the low 30s, I would watch the Feb 32.5s and 35s (depending on where it goes). If the premiums on those really drop hard with the stock only a point or so out of the money, I would make a big bet... Also pick up a bunch with a little longer horizon, again depending on the premium, maybe May 35s or 37.5s. Just looking at action on DLQBU Feb 37.5s, which are technically in the money, they were as low as 2 1/4 today... that will give me a proxy for how option sentiment is forming if the stock continues to drift down over the next few weeks. With the time premium gone, out of the money calls might get REAL cheap... a huge opportunity. If the stock stays where it is now or rebounds I will sell the puts back and make a few bucks that way... either way I'll make a play before earnings. I also think it will be back in the 50s by year end or early 2001 but would rather play this volatility with calls.