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To: John Hull who wrote (97734)	1/27/2000 5:37:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Respond to of 186894

John Hull, <oversimplification carries a lot of room for error.> Heh, no wonder you don't post to the AMD thread. Most of their assertions rely on oversimplification. Tenchusatsu

To: John Hull who wrote (97734)	1/27/2000 6:51:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

I can't answer any questions about Osha's models, but I can take stabs at the rest. 1. How much of Dell's business is US vs. international? About two thirds. 2. [50%/non-US] what's the trend here? I'm not sure, but this report sure makes US and worldwide PC unit growth seem congruent: biz.yahoo.com 3. What's the trend for consumer markets? Unclear from Dell's report alone. Add in Compaq, IBM, Gateway, resellers; despite HP's optimism ("home PCs and laptops particularly strong") you have a mixed bag. 4. [PC-bottom-up vs Intel overall] Bottom-up forecasts, by their nature, tend to be skewed towards optimism. After the fact, they necessarily balance. 5. unit volume of demand and supply that Intel will cease to be capacity constrained? <g> Give me Intel's internal production forecasts and let me set prices and I'll tell you. My best guess for IABG microprocessor demand, in dollars, is for low-to-no-growth, say 0-5% revenue increases YOY. My guess is that Intel is ramping for substantial unit growth, probably not less than 15-20% YOY, perhaps more. Natch, whether this constrains capacity is dependent on pricing; I expect the same old softness, so even flat dollar growth might strain the ramp. And last, in re a couple of companies, Dell and Compaq are more than that to IABG, and you know it. So, enough detail for you to provide thoughts instead of just questions? -mb