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To: re3 who wrote (4701)	1/28/2000 9:00:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 42523

Ike, i have to say it's really a tough call...IF the market crashes, we may well enter into a deflationary period, and i do think that the secular trend points actually to such an outcome. otoh, the CRB chart is obviously telling a different story right now. for the moment i believe the cyclical inflation upswing will persist for a while yet. the CB's around the world have been printing money like mad...you can print stocks as well, but NOT commodities. in many of the commodities that are on the move supply constraints are currently the root cause powering prices higher. if and when money leaves the stock market it may well find it's way into 'real' goods, fostering an inflationary flare-up. note that we can not even be certain of the eventual outcome of a few bad hair days in the stock market...the economy may well survive such a shock as it did in '87 (i don't believe that myself, but one has to be open-minded about such things. no-one has a perfect crystal ball, it's to a large extent a guessing game). btw, expect resource based stocks to suffer initially in the case of a BK, but if the inflation flare-up theory is right, they should show relative strength. if they do so, they should be bought...