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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (38381)	1/28/2000 1:26:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Me too. No one can predict with news coming out today. It overrides technicals. The STI on NYSE is only about 1. The cycle guy on the radio was expecting a bottom around 10700/3700 in another week and a half for his next cycle bottom. There seems to be a cycle guy on every corner these days. If one's using the October low, the next 20-week cycle low is in the first week of March. A low in early February and a retest in late February/early March to establish the next base would seem to be reasonable to me.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (38381)	1/28/2000 1:33:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

dmp: As posted, Favors falling a little out of favor, huh? <g> Regards, LG

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (38381)	1/28/2000 6:06:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Dennis, note that a big one-day TRIN (>1,50) serves as confirmation of the loopometry sell signal. this is the 9th loopometry sell signal since 1972. of the previous 8, only one (1988) has not worked and it was the only one not confirmed by a one-day TRIN > 1,50 within three weeks of the signal. this means if you believe in the signals validity, that every bounce should be sold from now on. note also that the 34-day TRIN recently hit the lowest level since August 1987. add to that that the bullish consensus has recently reached what can only be termed ABSURD levels, the wild speculation that has broken out in the BB sector, and you have to conclude that a BIG RED FLAG is being waved right in front of us. as of yet, there seems to be absolutely no concern in the marketplace. the bull market has acquired an aura of invincibility...thus i do think there will be lots of tradable bounces, as the ingrained BTD habit will continue to be on display. very good for traders, but a horror-show for long term investors.