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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (9783)	1/28/2000 6:06:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

Not such a good day to be owning stocks, but maybe a good day to be buying them. Happy to be adding to my position in Aviation Sales - AVS. Good price/sales, price/book, price/earnings - when they have earnings. (Stock cratered today.) Also buying Federal Mogul (FMO). As it hits new lows, I buy more. EBITD is now near 1. That is too cheap, imho. And ECIL, my tech play mentioned here recently---problems with sales mix and sales recognition hit the stock. I say it's temporary, and I'm buying more, as stock @$27 is 10 points under what "smart" controlling stockholder has paid. Starting new positions in AK Steel (AKS) after earnings disappointment and stock plummet. Co. says lot of it is merger related expense. Also IBP. Sales don't grow but they are wringing profits out of the business. I say stock will recover from 14 level to at least 21 in 1 yr to 18 mo. Also a very small start in Goodyear (GT). Stock now under 24 was over 66 in past 12 months. No real sales growth and it's accumulating debt, but price/book and 5% div. yield are attractive. (to me. Reply #9156, from Mike Burry, presents negative. Plus not in S&P)I'll make a small bet that the new management and controlling stockholder at Rite Aid can do something to propel RAD's $6 1/2 stock up over 11 (again) in year 2000. And I've taken an exploratory position in Wallace's SWS. Downside might be 18 (book value) from current $26 price. I'd guess upside potential might be 2x book - more if NITE, internet associated businesses get hot. I don't know how to figure MO, but it's either not a buy at any price (because of govt/lawsuits) or it's a buy around 21. I need a little more time to consider Mike B's MO pick. And I'll relook at Alliance Semiconductor (ALSC). All my predictions assume the market doesn't crash. And assume I know of what I speak. Not necessarily good assumptions as I've been wrong many, many times before. Paul.

To: Madharry who wrote (9783)	1/28/2000 6:52:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78476

Armin, I respect your picks, which is why I am asking for more info. We both know IDTC, which never got any respect for its apparently huge asset value in NTOP - because we felt that asset value could never be delivered. Why isn't ALSC a similar situation? UMC is not only a foreign company but also one whose value when the lockup periods end may be (?) in this volatile industry. My guess is that the discount stays until they start delivering some of this value directly to shareholders - sort of like a huge discount closed end fund holding illiquid investments.