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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldHack who wrote (18511)	1/28/2000 9:28:00 PM
From: Ken W	Respond to of 29382

Old Hack, My goodness it has been along time since you have posted here!! IFCI as I remember when it was at 1.50 or so? I and, I sure Sergio, could not agree with you more about the current valuations of this market. We have spoken many times about it. I for one, as pointed out by Sergio, have even gotten rusty on my FA ability due to being spoiled by the momo of this market. You and I know darn well that it will correct, just when is the major question. Everytime we think that this (today) is the signal, the new highs come roaring back within a week. HBI is a perfect example of what you are talking about. However, for the time being we have to go with what works and that is momo, news pops, rumors and hoopla. Sad but true. Ken

To: OldHack who wrote (18511)	1/29/2000 6:12:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Respond to of 29382

OH, It's great to hear from you and exchange thoughts again. The quality of your post almost makes up for your absence. Over the past year, I think that I've changed my trading discipline. I've added more reliance on technical analyses and committed my attention to a sector first then as the sector begins to turn up, buying individual stocks within the sector. Examples over the past tweleve months include buying dry wall manufacturers due to the sheet rock shortage, electronic outlet stores as a play off the semiconductor rally, water stocks (multiple reasons) and the biotech stocks due to the huge quantity of anticipated FDA approvals expected this year, starting already early this month. Also played some of the stocks that you mentioned. I kick myself for selling ORCL too soon. We seem to share a similar perpective on today's stock market, particularly about the MO game and how fund managers play it. But what is really going on? What's different? The old sayings, "Things are always changing," and "The more things change, the more they remain the same" are both still true. Let's look at one of the stocks that you mentioned - CPQ. By historic evaluation criteria, CPQ may be selling at high multiples and is therefore overpriced, after all CPQ's PE is higher than its growth rate. A closer examination reveals that CPQ is the market share leader but is selling at lower multiples than DELL, making CPQ a modern day value play. BTW, CPQ is in need of the same type of medicine that ORCL needed last year. CPQ needs to device and execute a new game plan. USG looks great fundamentally. Perhaps it will be more timely in 6-8 weeks. Housing stats have been fabulous and USG in particular has been the recipient of very positive write-ups. In case you aren't familiar with this site, I highly recommend it for quick reference to articles on stocks that you may be researching: reesegroup.com My thoughts on the market trend are in synch with the mainstream. Sure we're going to get turbulance, but what else can we expect after the recent rally and with interest rate increases looming in the future? Overall, in spite of the sell-off on Friday, I think the inclusion of other sectors, instead of just high techs, in the recent rally and the participation by small caps are very positive indications that the stock market trend will continue to be up and that high tech will continue as the market leader. I am watching the paper and lumber sector very carefully. The chart is still not bullish, although recent developments indicate that demand and price are both on the increase for paper and lumber products. 207.61.23.98 I also like the semiconductor sector, for the same reasons as you cited and other reasons as well, including the economic improvements in Asia. Another sector that I think will be rewarding, and has already started to get attention, is electric utitity companies, due to deregulation, ownership of these companies of large chunks of real estate and these companies respective interests in developing alternative electric fuel sources. I remain bullish on small plane manufacturers, particularly The Bomber (Bombardier), production is continuously being increased to meet increasing demand and I think that we're going to see a run up on medical device manufacturers. I don't take credit for originating all of my ideas. Bombardier for example, I first learned about from Ditchdigger and the idea that I can take my profit and buy a stock I like back at a later date but at a cheaper price has been hammered home by Ken W. and re-inforced by DD. Not sure if he's in or out of EXDS right now, but I know he likes it :-) Thanks for paying us a visit OH and be sure not to be so scarce in the near future. We're always looking to exchange ideas. Sergio