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To: GST who wrote (92491)	1/28/2000 4:05:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

MU had a downgrade today -- somebody lowered their price target from 150 to 70 and cut earnings estimates. They also noted that Korea has ramped up production faster than expected and memory prices are going down again. GST, I heard that but I can't see how that could change this quickly. See this link: aice.com

To: GST who wrote (92491)	1/28/2000 7:45:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

A few days ago when MU was around 75. some idiot analyst set a target of 150 and expanded earnings estimates. I have been monitoring grey market prices and reading trade journals: on average the price of DRAMS have been moving moderately lower. The price decline is not as bad as last summer. What is more damaging for MU is that prices for PC133 DRAMS has more than dropped in half since the 3rd quarter of last year. Micron was perhaps the largest producer of PC133s and charged about twice the going price of PC100s. Now the pricing of the higher performance design parts is only a 10%-15% premium over the cheap PC100s. One factor I haven't been able to quantify to my satisfaction yet is whether there is a supply glut. It was reported that many OEMs engaged in double or triple ordering last quarter so that they would be assured of having parts for production of finished goods. Some large OEMs such as Compaq, Lucent & Telabs have warned of excess finished goods inventories and some market softness expected during the next two quarters. Some other OEMs have reported continued robust sales. on the balance if there has been over-ordering, a build up of inventories and slower than expected growth, (this doesn't have to be negative growth just less than the product pipeline has prepared for), then the fortunes of the semi companies could change very quickly, causing at least a short-term adjustment of sales and earnings outlooks. If I can get a handle on this before the it hits the street it should make for good short sale opportunities.