To: Hank Stamper who wrote (5555 ) 1/28/2000 4:55:00 PM From: Lee Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 24042
David,..Re:.comment on JDSU in the context of the present state of the economy, Fed action, and market action Present State of the Economy - Couldn't be better, low unemployment, modest wage gains on the back of higher productivity, Savings in the form of 401Ks and property appreciation, which aren't counted by the official 'savings rate' and finally, global growth returning. Global growth return bodes well for our (North America's) smokestack and natural resource industries as well. A picture illustrates the point much better. <g>stls.frb.org The information on this page is current through January 28,2000. FED Action - A quarter point rate hike is already in the fed funds futures and in the equity markets. More hikes will come unless consumer spending will slow to a more sustainable pace - one that does not tax our labor force and factories and also reduces our growth in imports. Over the long term and for the growth we are experiencing, rates are reasonable. <g> Another picture. <g>stls.frb.org MARKET Action - The market is returning to historical volatility levels. After an 85% gain in '99 for the NAZ, did you not expect some rotation of funds? <g> Unless margin is completely out of hand, the market is operating normally. With a balanced budget in U.S. and even a surplus and less issue of debt, 30 yr and other treasuries, and as long as the government continues some semblance of fiscal responsibility, the market will be happy. I know government fiscal responsibility is an oxymoron! <gg> More Pictures. Historical Volatilitymrci.com The good news is the VIX got up to 30 today and if you'll notice in the next pictures, that's frequently the area where a turn around occurs. <g> Notice the dates of the NAS run ups around Oct. 18th and Jan 7th. Notice what the VIX did on or about those dates.<g>charts-d.quote.com :443/949094326946?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=COMPX&Interval=D&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10charts-d.quote.com :443/949095930842?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=VIX.X&Interval=D&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10 Sorry about all the pictures but some of us can't communicate very well without 'em. <g> Be happy, (don't do margin!!) Lee