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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MileHigh who wrote (65032)	1/28/2000 5:46:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

One thing that should be done is to see what the exact e number would have been pre split. I haven't done that exercise. But we did .92 and it looks like we followed that with a 1.00. Then they are leading us to 1.08(.27x4), but then expect e to accelerate. If e's accelerate, we get 1.20 perhaps. Then Q needs a 1.38 q to be at 50% year over year, which now seems like a stretch. But there is a big catch. They made a lot more money in fees and royalties than anticipated. This is the main business going forward and it grew at well in excess of 125% year over year(asics and royalties.) They will probably hit 800-850 million in profits in these businesses this year, and even 60% growth will get that to about 1.3 billion the fiscal year starting in October. That is a 1.80 in earnings next year just from these businesses. What's wrong with my numbers? It appears Q is nearly certain of e 1.80 next year. This quarters numbers looked a little weak due to the phone business, but there was a platinum lining. The truth is the only thing that worries me is Alex Cena downgraded. But did he do this with management's blessings and to give clients a chance to buy in this quarter because Q will run away and hide again soon? Q's income statement is a mess. I am pretty good with numbers and it gives me a headache. But it will be clearer in the summer. If royalties do indeed grow at current rates, this clarity will be great. If it looks like Q is a 40% grower with a pe of 175 recently, new buyers are in deep trouble. I think we are attached to a 50% grower for the next decade, with a pe of 80 currently.