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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Walk Softly who wrote (68942)	1/28/2000 10:53:00 PM
From: JOED3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108040

Interesting analysis WS. I don't know anything about TRIN #s. Where can I find them and learn more about this indicator. p.s. I hope to H_ll you are right.

To: Walk Softly who wrote (68942)	1/30/2000 3:07:00 AM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 108040

>I expect a contratrend rally in the next couple of days< Can I elect you to the Fed, Walk? In my muted opinion, there's not much history of recessions and major corrections in advance of a Fed meeting, so I feel safe through Wednesday. If there is danger, I expect it next Thursday afternoon, Friday and Monday. Uncle Algae is no matador trying to kill the bull. The Y2K factor, which precluded a December qtr-pt. basis increase in interest rates PLUS added a ton of cash sent to banks to forestall a Y2K bank run, actually advanced the bull for numerous big caps to unsustainable levels. Prudent money managers have conducted a stealth campaign in January, dragging down a few at a time (all at once could spook the market) to try and stave off more drastic FED action in Feb. Since they skipped that qtr point in Dec and Uncle Algae tut-tutted the margin-buying increases already, it's prudent to anticipate a 1/2-pt hike Wednesday; any higher would be a risky move by the FED. While I'd love to see our old friend, the roaring bull, till tax time, I'm more inclined to believe it'll be a 'steer' instead - a less aggressive bull. To limit risk, I'll maintain substantial cash as of Wednesday's morning high, by selling off the issues at or near trading highs... bottom dwellers have less to fall. As an aside, I hope no-one minded my clownish attempts to reverse the slide Friday. I just sensed gloom and thought some comic relief might relax a few sphincters. Hmmmm.... let me rephrase that... I didn't mean someone was an.... oh, never mind....