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Technology Stocks : Stock Swap -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Stewart who wrote (16931)	1/28/2000 9:40:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 17305

AV --- I am trying to catch up on all mail and have not had time to check on one thing before I begin. I am not sure if XACT was ever brought to the forefront here on Stock Swap. If it has not, it might be inappropriate for me to discuss the company here since it is a stock from the newsletter. Without the appropriate background provided here, without supporting documentation and information, we might do a disservice to readers here who do not have the full picture. So, we must urge everyone take the next comments with a "grain of salt" since not enough due diligence has been provided to make an informed decision here. Now to answer your question: XACT is down from $25 and is now $18 Depending on where you are invested or if you are would determine where your next move might be. 1. IF not invested, XACT provides both a good short term trade as well as something decent to hold. 2. If invested at $22 to $25 either an average down or hunkering down patiently might be considered since we see nothing dramatically different in our view of the company. Personally, I am not going to be chased from this stock. We admit to poor timing here but it is not something we haven't already done before. Most of the time it comes back and then some (ESFT, PLXT, CYMI, etc.) over time making it an opportunity cost for our error. 3. If invested in the $18 to $22 range, any scenario is possible (Average down, add more, sit tight, lick wounds and exit with minor loss). Of all 3 groups above the #3 group is probably the most enviable since a short term trade looks real good and so does just waiting for profits to present themselves. I am not bullish on anything right now since the markets are in decline. We have addressed this in the newsletter just prior to the negative performance when we raised the Yellow Caution Flag for our readers. Right now, it appears obvious we are in a decline, but enough discussion has taken place to minimize profit erosion. For those stocks we did not exit when the LLTs hit, we have only ourselves to blame (myself included) for the subsequent profit erosion. We exited and we re-positioned a good deal so far and have reserves built up for re-entry. To be actively bullish on anything right now would be ludicrous but we do find ourselves oogling some of the developing opportunities and taking advantage of some of the wider volatility swings. Money can be made in a downturn, as evidenced by ERICY, TQNT, and TXCC all of which were up for the day. Off course, everything else got dumped on.<GGG> So, hopefully I might have given some insight but as you are well aware, we are dealing with very speculative and volatile stocks. They can swing widely in both directions. This is not for the weak kneed person. It appears that 2000 has provided us with 2 corrections and one Rally, all in January. The most conservative investors are probably sitting on the sidelines while the aggressive ones are looking for the "Blue Light Specials". 2000 is going to be an interesting year since we will see everything that can occur in a market, happen. Boom and Bust, Correction and Rally, Mergers and Acquisitions, Inflated and deflated Internet stocks, and over reactions versus undiscovered gems, all causing the market to experience these wild swings. The real interesting part is that technology might be the safe haven, fundamentally, but the mod mentality is whipsawing all the stocks. So, the only thing we can be sure of right now is that trading volumes are going to be extremely high, generating a great deal of profits for the brokerage houses and the online brokers. If they can just keep down their overhead expenses, they will probably out perform most of the sectors. After all, as the saying goes, investing in Liquor and Beer stocks is always appropriate. When the good times roll, everyone is celebrating with champagne. And when the bad times rolls about, all you want to do is drown your sorrows in the bottle.<GGGG> BTW - how did you come across XACT? Do we have a few phantom copies circulating that shouldn't be? <GGGG> If so, when XACT pays off, I expect a few more checks in the mail. If not, I would expect even more checks in the mail<GGG>. Andrew