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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (38520)	2/5/2000 12:27:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

U.S. Accelerates Efforts to Scuttle OPEC Oil Production Agreement stratfor.com

To: Les H who wrote (38520)	2/5/2000 12:43:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Plus or Minus 1 Day Analysis, February 4, 2000 Last Friday we stated the following: "We believe the Dow is near the next short-term low. That low should be seen near February 1, plus or minus 1 day. So a low is likely we believe by Monday on Tuesday. The low in this time frame should be followed by a rally into February 7, plus or minus 1 day and then we should see a brief decline into February 9, plus or minus 1 day, and then another rally into February 11, plus or minus 1 day. From there another brief correction is likely." The Dow in fact reached a low of 10701 on a print basis on January 31, within one day of our February 1 target. We have since rallied 417 points from that low to a high of 11118 this week. The Nasdaq fell 12.87% from its 4303 print high to a low of 3748 on January 31, again, within one day of our target for a low. We stated on our nightly subscriber hotline update on January 31 that we did not agree with the Bears who were then claiming a major top in the market had been seen. We specifically stated that we expected the Nasdaq to rally back to new all-time highs. The Nasdaq did in fact rally back to new closing highs this week. We believe the market will see a brief correction into early next week and that the correction could test the prior lows at 10701 in the Dow. The correction should bottom near February 15, plus on minus 1 day. From there we look for another rally to higher highs into February 24, plus or minus 1 day and then a pullback into the end of the month. Despite the probability of a correction in the market early next week, we look for the Dow to rally up fairly close to the prior all-time highs before the month of February is out. Unless the Dow exceeds 11910 intraday this month there will then be another fairly steep pullback. However, despite any corrections this month we believe the Dow will ultimately rally to new all-time highs between here and April. We recommend continuing to hold long positions. We will tell subscribers on our hotline next week when we believe the next important bottom is in. That will be the time to start new buying.

To: Les H who wrote (38520)	2/6/2000 12:36:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Advance/Decline and Moving Average Relationships By Sector: Feb 4, 2000 percent stocks advance percent stocks over MA sector 5 d 21 d 63 d 250d 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- General Market 02/04 59 54 54 51 53 47 51 47 01/28 25 45 55 48 26 39 46 44 01/21 52 61 63 50 54 58 59 49 high 01/14 54 63 62 49 62 62 59 49 01/07 40 56 55 49 52 58 57 48 low 01/05 35 48 51 46 38 48 50 44 high 12/31 65 58 56 49 72 66 61 48 low 12/14 39 45 44 51 39 40 49 44 high 12/03 48 55 46 51 50 51 57 47 low 10/18 16 24 26 51 19 23 24 35 Aerospace/Defense 53 55 68 28 55 45 62 34 Apparel (incl Retail) 59 31 30 34 55 43 31 25 Automotive 37 32 24 24 32 20 34 17 Banks 57 43 6 19 47 35 12 10 Biotechnology 72 92 92 86 62 70 92 92 Building/Construction 57 37 32 24 49 36 34 15 Chemical 44 37 48 45 41 27 42 35 Commercial Svcs 59 53 63 48 52 44 52 55 Computer Equipment 72 67 77 71 65 61 65 75 Consumer Nondurable 34 46 41 22 44 39 34 22 Drug (excl Biotech) 61 73 66 51 59 53 66 59 Electronics (incl Semi) 80 81 88 86 76 76 83 87 Environmental 59 41 27 32 50 41 45 27 Financial (incl S&L) 67 60 33 41 62 52 43 32 Foods 56 26 22 21 47 27 26 14 Healthcare 62 66 63 45 54 46 63 46 Household Products 55 43 38 38 58 40 33 30 Insurance 60 38 19 23 50 31 26 19 Internet 57 49 71 64 48 48 47 65 Leisure 54 52 42 41 48 41 43 27 Machinery 35 31 33 40 44 29 35 19 Media 64 64 71 77 64 53 63 67 Metals (excl Gold) 33 26 50 50 29 24 33 36 Oil & Gas 51 69 48 76 36 44 61 39 Paper Products & Pkg 32 16 30 48 32 14 22 16 Real Estate 34 65 31 24 35 31 60 14 Retail 54 38 37 34 52 41 36 26 Semiconductors 93 93 94 95 89 86 94 95 Software 65 62 84 75 59 55 64 79 Telecommunications 78 73 87 84 68 74 80 85 Transportation 55 36 33 34 48 28 31 25 Utilities 66 52 25 37 46 54 47 30 New Highs and Lows for Market ( 3660 stocks sans CEFs, ETFs) sector 20-days 40-days 63-days 1-year ---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- General Market 02/04 400 - 345 321 - 240 278 - 199 221 - 130 01/28 92 - 631 73 - 401 64 - 311 40 - 188 01/21 562 - 393 458 - 277 405 - 210 289 - 136 high 01/14 582 - 197 407 - 130 363 - 97 229 - 63 01/07 596 - 195 336 - 123 269 - 71 127 - 45 low 01/04 113 - 548 74 - 375 65 - 266 32 - 153 high 12/31 679 - 111 468 - 74 402 - 54 262 - 35 low 12/14 231 - 650 202 - 395 170 - 329 117 - 226 high 12/03 487 - 277 399 - 167 343 - 141 251 - 89 low 10/18 72 - 904 48 - 715 32 - 613 22 - 289 New 20-day Highs and Lows By Sector sector num 02/04/00 01/28/00 01/21/00 01/14/00 ---------------------- --- --------- --------- --------- --------- Aerospace/Defense 47 3 - 5 1 - 7 5 - 3 7 - 2 Apparel (incl Retail) 88 7 - 10 2 - 34 6 - 18 6 - 1 Automotive 41 1 - 7 0 - 14 4 - 6 7 - 3 Banks 113 4 - 7 0 - 9 1 - 31 14 - 7 Biotechnology 71 12 - 2 2 - 2 35 - 0 18 - 0 Building/Construction 114 11 - 10 0 - 31 13 - 24 14 - 10 Chemical 71 8 - 13 2 - 22 3 - 13 8 - 4 Commercial Services 268 25 - 14 5 - 48 22 - 23 34 - 13 Computer Equipment 127 21 - 3 3 - 14 27 - 5 27 - 6 Consumer Nondurable 41 3 - 9 1 - 7 4 - 9 4 - 1 Drug (excl Biotech) 70 5 - 5 6 - 8 17 - 3 24 - 0 Electronics (incl Semi) 243 60 - 10 16 - 17 72 - 4 102 - 4 Environmental 22 2 - 1 2 - 5 2 - 1 1 - 2 Financial (incl S&L) 125 13 - 7 3 - 18 8 - 16 26 - 7 Foods 56 5 - 13 1 - 25 4 - 24 2 - 9 Healthcare 175 24 - 15 4 - 19 24 - 15 30 - 5 Household Products 40 3 - 6 0 - 5 3 - 6 4 - 3 Insurance 98 4 - 13 1 - 30 2 - 31 13 - 9 Internet 321 26 - 22 4 - 50 48 - 20 21 - 15 Leisure 122 10 - 10 1 - 19 11 - 8 15 - 11 Machinery 48 1 - 12 0 - 14 0 - 7 6 - 5 Media 86 12 - 5 4 - 15 13 - 2 9 - 4 Metals (excl Gold) 78 3 - 19 3 - 15 3 - 15 10 - 1 Oil & Gas 165 4 - 21 1 - 18 52 - 4 49 - 4 Paper Products & Pkg 50 2 - 12 1 - 10 0 - 15 5 - 3 Real Estate 106 2 - 14 2 - 11 15 - 3 14 - 4 Retail 258 17 - 32 7 - 60 18 - 48 22 - 16 Semiconductors 121 38 - 0 3 - 4 35 - 1 69 - 0 Software 182 34 - 10 5 - 29 37 - 10 27 - 8 Telecommunications 223 50 - 10 9 - 30 65 - 2 42 - 6 Transportation 88 4 - 12 1 - 24 4 - 23 5 - 11 Utilities 114 9 - 11 2 - 14 33 - 2 11 - 8 prior week: Message 12719711