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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eplace who wrote (90392)	1/29/2000 4:56:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1575603

Hey eplace: No doubt one has to watch the backdrop factors, especially long bond rates...Something we haven't seen for a long time occurred on Friday with an incredibly large diversion that occurred between the DJI and the long bond rate. We've grown accustomed to a knee-jerk positive respponse in the DJI to a reduction in long bond rates...That did not happen on Friday...In fact the opposite occurred...My experience suggests one is wise to pay attention when "market backdrop" factors behave abnormally...Having said that, my guess is the production numbers on Friday were so strong that they spooked the market to the degree that humongous dollars fled the stock market into "safe haven" bonds thus driving rates down in the short run...(enough money flow into bonds to offset the strong inflation factor normally associated with heated up production... Once calm is restored, Y2000 is likely to be much more earnings driven than Y99...An earnings driven market will be very good for AMD if you agree that AMD will deliver increasingly positive quarterly eps throughout Y2000, as do I. (Current optimistic estimates are: $0.80, $1.20, $2.00 and $3.00 (i.e $7.00)...pessimistic $0.50, $1.00, $1.00, $1.50 i.e. $4.00))...In either case, AMD will be significantly higher than the current $35 by the end of Y2000...In fact, I suspect that AMD, once finished consolidating in the current $35 to $38 range (in retrospect, that first pass of $38 occurred far too easily), is set for its next upleg which will take it fairly quickly to test that much awaited (by me anyway) all time high of $48.50... The last time Nasdaq backed off to these sub 4000 levels, AMD backed off to the trading range $27 to $30...This time to $35 to $38 range...Any recovery in Nasdaq to 4100 plus should easily carry AMD into the $40's...The point here is that AMD's bias is up and is outperforming the Nasdaq...and nothing on my radar screen suggests to me any long term negative Nasdaq trend in Y2000... Technically, AMD's 3 month chart once again demonstrates that at $35 it is testing its lower short term trading boundary. The upper boundary is around $48.50. My guess is that AMD will continue to trade in this range and consequently I'm a buyer at $35 as I was at $37 on Friday! Hope this provides some fodder in response to your question...I can't guarantee 100% accuracy in the foregoing, just my strong vibes based on my trading experiences over the years.