To: 16yearcycle who wrote (65173 ) 1/29/2000 1:43:00 PM From: marginmike Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Eugene do you remember my 5oDMA break is sell signal? The problem lies not in Qcom long term fundimentals, but if the stock got ahead of itself. If Yhoo and CNXT and others were at normal valuation what would the Q be worth? In my opinion 100 per share is a fair value. I am going to start buying stock again, but I want some suport to be built. As with the overshoot up, we will probably overshoot down. I think we will hit 87 interday and rebound to hang around the 120 range for a whille. I will have a chance to buy when it bounces. It may have bounced already! Only time will tell. I do know that 125 will be a real bitch to get back through. It was suport for 4 years, now it is 4 years of resistence IMHO. I think q will be a good play going into earnings because the numbers will be OK. However the TA damage is severe, if you look at AOL, YHOO, EBAY and RMBS,GMST whom all had these type of corrections they all took months of volitile ups and downs before they broke out again. We will be at 200 this time next year but its going to be rough. If the market does have a nasty correction it may get quite ugly. At 110 we are at 440 a share or about 80-100X y2000 earnings. Its reasonable but its no steal either. We will only grow 35-50% this year, thats they way MGMT put it during CC. so we are at an inflection pt where no one knows what Q should be valued at, are 440 price was assuming alot, that is true long term but not short term. The Stock in 1996 had a 150PE and traded to 77 a share before diping back to 40's much like we did today. It stayed in the 40-60 range for three years whille the stock cought up with the fundimentals. We may need 5 months to get where Q's future is looking like there is massive growth. WE need HDR and 1XRT and Nok deal and we need it to be acreative. The story is the same but the here and now is a lille skewed. IMHO
