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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (38543)	1/29/2000 2:34:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Here's some tasty freeze stuff I posted in the sandbox: usually when I start to do the "burn, baby, burn" dance, it's a good time to go long .. forget usually. My batting average is probably 100% there. Some points. We have had record setting cash inflows into retirement funds (AMG data) yet have still seen this bad performance. So what is going on? Fed liquidity. Les was kind enough to provide me with these links: #reply-12707060 My option pivot pattern .. seems to be functioning very well for me. This one will allow me to be able to move the 401k in and out, in spite of the T+3 stuff I have to work with. I expect to start applying it to my move into real options no later than 2/18. Note that with all the money that the fed threw at the market, the first time in four years that this pattern was broken was this month .. by 5 SPX points. I ran into this interesting post last night about the day that the pattern didn't quite make it: #reply-12715715 extract: BTW, not many people realize how close the NDX futures were to chaos Jan. 6 when the futures dropped 170 pts or so after losing around 300 pts the prior two days. THE PIT STOPPED TOUCHING PAPER at one point and refused to take customer orders. Runners were being turned away from the steps since some clerks wouldn't even look at them. Bid/asked spreads were 10 pts. That's a $1000. The Dec pattern had the play on the dark side .. the Jan pattern had the play on the dark side .. if we get a run up after the FOMC meeting than the Feb pattern will be on the dark side. I have been hoping that the end of month stuff would put it the other way .. that would get me into the market with the 401 .. but it doesn't look like it will play out that way. If we do run down further after the FOMC that would make the play after 2/18 on the long side .. the question would be "up from where?" Record margin levels .. The majority of second mortgages taken out during the second half of '99 were to put money into the stock market. If we don't reverse on Monday, then margin calls will cause havoc with the market.