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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (33911)	1/29/2000 4:55:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, If I recall correctly you abandoned ship(AMAT) at about $127. Now you are saying you will jump in at $94. Even if your gains were long term gains, that only puts you ahead by about $7, assuming 20% capital gains taxes. (127.8=101.6) , I'll be out (again) at the first whiff of semi over-capacity. I don't expect this to be a problem for the next 24 months, at least.* If you truly believe this, why should you or anyone else expect AMAT to trade below market multiples as you are expecting? The end is nigh. Someone fix the record player, it's skipping again:-))))) BK

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (33911)	1/29/2000 5:28:00 PM
From: Hayduke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OT Jacob, you said > I'm doing this calculation for a list of growth companies > (INTC, TXN, CSCO, MDT, BDX, GDT, WCOM, EMC, EGRP) that > I'll buy if I get my price. I'm curious as to your "fair value" price for the other companies - would you mind sharing? I enjoy your posts and the trouble you take to explain your thinking, so don't be dissuaded from posting. > The end is nigh. Fire or ice? :-)

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (33911)	1/30/2000 4:06:00 PM
From: EACarl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I agree with most of your "fair value" post. Many of the semi-equips have been and are overvalued relative to history and relative to others in the group. AMAT is certainly one of them. Others off the top of my head would be: ASYT,ASML,KLAC,PRIA,HELX,TER,CYMI. Of course, MOST large cap stocks in this market are overvalued relative to any reasonable valuation analysis. That has not stopped them from going higher. Even though I agree with your fair value analysis, most people don't care and they buy the "big name" companies they have heard of without regard for what is a reasonable value. There are still great values out there though, even in the semi-equip sector. I suggest you look at COHU, EGLS, KLIC. All would pass your test for being undervalued with the assumptions you make in your post and would have a PEG less than 1. All three came out with earnings recently, and based on those earnings and the new estimates for this year I give you the following data. COHU current price $43, 2000 earnings ~ $2.50 to $3.00. EGLS current price $30, 2000 earnings ~ $2.00. KLIC current price $53, 2000 earnings ~ $3.00+. Good hunting, and regards, Eric.