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SUPPLIERS FACE OBSTACLES IN ROLL OUT OF 3G WIRELESS SYSTEMS
By Darrell Dunn and Mark LaPedus - Electronic Buyers' News (01/14/00)
Suppliers have begun debuting chipsets that support third-generation (3G) wireless technology, which promises to pave the way for a new breed of handheld devices.
But a host of problems, including confusing standards and technical snafus, could push out mass deployment of 3G wireless services from early next year, as previously promised, until as late as 2005, industry observers said. The delays could leave chip makers, OEMs, and carriers on the 3G runway for many years.
Still, suppliers have been busy readying devices for the market.
Qualcomm Inc., for one, is quietly sampling the world's first chipset for 3G networks, while Texas Instruments Inc. has garnered another design win for its 3G-chip platform, this time from Ericsson Inc. The chipset is a critical component that handles voice-processing and other functions in a handset.
A chief benefit of 3G technology is the ability to unify existing cellular standards-CDMA, GSM, and TDMA-under one umbrella. In addition, 3G technology will boost wireless-data rates from the current level of 9.6 Kbit/s up to 2 Mbit/s, enabling a new class of Internet-access devices.
But a major question remains: When will the 3G market actually materialize?
Analyst Will Strauss of Forward Concepts Co., Tempe, Ariz., estimated that a 3G rollout will begin in Japan late next year. 3G will not be a significant factor in the United States until at least 2003, followed by Europe a year or two later, he said.
“Quite frankly, people were originally thinking that 3G cellular was going to hit in Europe by 2002, and now it's looking like it's going to be more like 2005,” Strauss said.
Even in Japan, 3G is being deployed in increments. NTT, the carrier in charge of 3G in Japan, will offer these services by 2001, but it will only offer 64-Kbit/s wireless-data services, not the 2-Mbit/s that was previously promised, analysts said.
One of the biggest stumbling blocks in implementing the technology has been a battle over 3G standards. There are currently three confusing, and incompatible, protocols: cdma2000, Wideband-CDMA (W-CDMA), and a TDMA-like derivative. And a migration path from current digital cellular standards to the more complex 3G protocols remains daunting.
Another hurdle for 3G is competition from general packet radio system (GPRS), a technology that transports wireless data over a GSM network at speeds up to 115 Kbits/s.
“GPRS does about 90% of what most people had originally envisioned 3G was supposed to do,” Strauss said. “And while GPRS is fulfilling a considerable amount of what 3G is supposed to do, it can be done with only slight modifications of the existing infrastructure, while 3G requires a huge investment.”
Another problem is the migration path from two of the current standards, GSM and TDMA, to the more complex W-CDMA technology, according to Johan Lodenius, vice president of marketing at Qualcomm's CDMA Technologies Division in San Diego.
“It's going to be difficult for the TDMA and GSM camps to migrate to W-CDMA because the [various protocols] are completely different,” Lodenius said.
Qualcomm believes it has an advantage over W-CDMA with a competing but proprietary 3G technology called cdma2000. In fact, cdma2000 is a seamless upgrade path from the current CDMA technology, cdmaOne, he said.
Qualcomm said it is shipping the world's first 3G-based chipset, a cdma2000-based solution. Dubbed the MSM5000, the chipset supports wireless-data rates of 153.6 Kbits/s. Later, it will support Qualcomm's own proprietary wireless-data technology, High Data Rate (HDR), which supports 2.4-Mbit/s applications.
TI's efforts to maintain a dominant position as a supplier of processors for use in cellular telephones gained momentum last week with an announcement that Ericsson has selected TI's Open Multimedia Application Platform for use in its 3G systems. That announcement follows a similar one last May, when Nokia said it would use the TI OMAP in its 3G equipment.
Neither Ericsson nor Nokia has disclosed a timetable for the rollout of its 3G handsets, but both will use the OMAP from TI, which consists of an as yet undisclosed ARM-based microprocessor, a TMS320C54x-based DSP, DMA, memories, and customer-specific hardware blocks.
“This platform will enable enhanced wireless Internet applications and access of everything from voice, data, and video to functions that include digital e-commerce and real-time audio and video streaming,” said Bob Carl, manager of marketing for the Americas at TI's wireless-communications division.
Others are also gearing up 3G chipsets, including LSI Logic, Philips, and DSP Communications, a subsidiary of Intel Corp.
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