Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (90409)	1/30/2000 3:08:00 AM
From: Petz	Respond to of 1575726

niceguy, re:<$0.43 supports a much higher price than $35 when one looks forward at the potential for significant increments in AMD quarterly earnings throughout Y2000> Amen to that! Take a look at Yahoo's research summary on AMD here: biz.yahoo.com They show AMD with quarterly earnings of 0.46, not 0.43 since the non-recurring writoff was removed. Also I like the "Earnings Surprise" number of 1,250%. This research summary shows estimated Y2K earnings of $1.56, and estimated Y2001 earnings of $3.03. I've read a few of the research reports from Albert, and even those who are estimating $2.00 or higher for Y2K earnings are estimating the Q1'00 will have lower earnings than 0.43. In fact, you can see from the Yahoo summary that the average estimate for Q1'00 is only 0.24. Clearly there's a lot of skepticism about AMD being able to deliver. If Q1 earnings come in above the Q4'99 results, which I believe is quite likely, it would force every analyst to raise their Y2K estimate above $2 per share, and their Y'01 estimate above $3 per share. This would make the numbers comparable to Intel's but with a higher growth rate. Certainly, at $35, AMD is one of the biggest bargains on the NYSE. Petz

To: niceguy767 who wrote (90409)	1/30/2000 8:00:00 AM
From: Gopher Broke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575726

Hi Niceguy, <<we'll see that $48.50 in the not too distant future once the "interest rate" disturbance gets digested once and for all>> I remain bullish on AMD, but I am bearish about the current state of the Nasdaq. IMO it was overbought and the economic news was just an excuse to correct, with more to come. I see nothing much to prevent a continual decline for several weeks. Question is, can AMD hold up against an overall decline or is it time to get out for a month or so? Will investors start to buy into AMD well before the next quarterly earnings announcement? Will AMD pre-announce great results ahead of earnings? My take is that AMD will probably hold up reasonably well and it is not worth missing the boat by trying to time an exit and re-entry. I will also be looking to load up on some more AMD when it looks like the correction is complete.