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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yaacov who wrote (152643)	1/29/2000 5:31:00 PM
From: hsg	Respond to of 176387

My guess leads me to short the stock to $30, and then cover and pick some up. I definetly see the stock lower than $35 next week, in part due to market skittishness over the Fed meeting/higher rates, ect. Growth stocks get hit the hardest in the denominator when rates rise. I think Dell is going to be a target, and I think the short's will be back in droves on Monday.

To: Yaacov who wrote (152643)	1/29/2000 10:36:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

yaacov - Nice Trades!! but re: based on gut feeling this stock will hit 53 to 54 by mid to late March My personal view is that DELL will get to the 50s in late 2000 or early 2001, but that given the body blow to predictability that managements' handling of the last 2 earnings warnings has given, I expect DELL to drift to the mid-30s between now and the next earnings report, and perhaps lower. If the revenue trend for DELL in the next Q after this is closer to 30% than 35%, and margins don't pick up, it could remain depressed through much of 2000. I can't see any series of events which would push DELL back up to the 50s any time soon - if they have a big upside surprise after warning, it will further exacerbate the sense that DELL management is not predictable and does not have a handle on their business - not a good thing. Their best bet would be to slightly exceed projected earnings and show improvement in the right areas - margin in particular - while getting to a business plan which offers the prospect of continuing on their 30% or better growth... I think the predictability aspect is key, since much of DELL's traditional valuation was built around confidence in managements' projections. In the meantime, the current crisis may be a great opportunity for me to shift investment strategy on DELL to a more leveraged model - this is a unique combination of events. But if DELL reports numbers which are weak in the wrong areas in mid-February, long term holders who are not hedged may be left holding the bag for a while.