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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (9806)	1/29/2000 11:27:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78476

I would guess a number of investors are waiting to buy SNH on the news of a dividend cut. Thus I think you are right that makes the bottom. But if I have the chance to steal shares what I think is a 18% stabilized yield (i.e. after the cut), I'm not going to get too cute with my thinking. I've done the analysis of the fundamentals, and I have more faith in that analysis than in my analysis of how the stock will trade, though I suspect that would be a sound strategy. Like I said before, what I like about this one (the difference between SNH and CMH) is the dividend. If the stock bottoms at 8, I really don't worry about that as long as my fundamental case holds. Because I'm collecting a huge dividend while I wait for the market to sort things out. If CMH falls to 6, I don't worry too much either, but I have no dividend to compensate me for the time the stock takes to stabilize. Part of me would like nothing better than waking up someday with cash in my account and seeing CMH at 6 and SNH at 8. And I do not consider that far-fetched in a significant market downturn.