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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TCGNJ who wrote (13080)	1/29/2000 10:22:00 PM
From: Jack Whitley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

<<What's the consensus on the thread about buying LU at these levels?>> Excellent LU article in the Feb 7, 2000 issue of Forbes, includes discussion regarding missed earnings. As an aside, I am a paying Forbes subscriber, and find the magazine generally excellent. I highly recommend a subscription. jww forbes.com

To: TCGNJ who wrote (13080)	1/30/2000 12:58:00 AM
From: Diamond Jim	Respond to of 21876

I would wait, I would wait on everything right now though, I don't believe the interest rate hike is completely factored in yet. jim

To: TCGNJ who wrote (13080)	1/30/2000 11:50:00 AM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

TCGNJ, LU is at a good level for a partial entry at this point. You might want to see if 50-52 is available again. Despite Jack's scathing comments, LU does have good management in key area. the decision to pursue DWDM rather than 10G optical was a bad one. People have paid for that. Middle management leaves a bit to be desired, but that can be said for many companies. McGinn has already lowered estimates for this quarter, giving guidance for 10 billion in revenues and .23 or so per share earnings. I would expect that the next CC would be upbeat heading into the second half. Fixing the manufacturing fiasco is proceeding as planned, though optical sales will be weak again this quarter. All guidance given by management is for a strong second half. Good luck, Brian

To: TCGNJ who wrote (13080)	1/30/2000 4:14:00 PM
From: sunfish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

"What's the consensus on the thread" There were some "sky is falling" types posting that LU was crashing into the 40's (or below) as LU hit 55-50; these were not regulars to the thread. They always seem to fly into a thread during times of panic. They do a service to those who have the stomach to buy stocks during pull backs by depressing already-beaten-up stocks even further. However, many (most?) on this thread seemed to believe that LU is good value at these levels (50-55). I personally expect LU to recover in 6 mo. to a year to its all time high of 84. This would give someone a very nice 50-60% return over that time frame without much risk of more than a 20% decline. I don't think you can do much better than LU here on a risk-reward basis. LU could easily go over a hundred (a double) over the next 12 months.