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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (90415)	1/29/2000 6:23:00 PM
From: milo_morai	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1573899

GST, It's fairly accurate based on overally product shipped and a migration of K6-x customers to Athlons. AMD shipped 6 million cpu's last quarter and 0.9 Million of the 6 million were Athlon's (15% of total cpu's). Milo

To: GST who wrote (90415)	1/30/2000 10:44:00 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573899

Hi GST: As far as I know, Salomon Smith Barney don't make such projections without considerable analysis and thought...I would guess that they may even have bounced such a projection off AMD management prior to its public release... If memory serves me, Dan Niles projected 7.5 million, somewhat lower but still representing an astounding incremental increase of 6.5 million! My projection, based upon reading between the lines of AMD previous releases and factoring in the rather amazing ramp up to date is aroune 9.5 million... In any event, I would estimate, assuming margins remain fairly flat (they could in fact rise in AMD's case if their current top end advabntage remains in tact, and nothing in the short term (6 to 9 months) suggests otherwise to me) as AMD moves up the Athlon gradient curve that each 1 million incremental Athlon sales, will add a minimum of $0.50 to eps. (just look at the effect of the Q4 Athlon increment of 600,000 Athlons and one might even make the case that $0.50 per million is very conservative) If one accepts Niles 7.5 million (assuming memory serves me correct) projection, then add a minimum of $3.75 to the Q4 $0.43...If Salomon et al are correct at 12.5 million, well...you can do the math! Obviously, the foregoing optimistic outlook assumes no major hiccups in Dresden and continued flash demand outstripping supply, assumptions which for the time being remain supportable... Hey epinephrine's advice is rock solid, imho...This segment of the market is exceedingly fickle...But given the extraordinary risk, a potential outcome is an extraordinary return...At $35, given existing superior product mix in both its flash and microprocessor divisions and given the potential for continuing positive developments with Dresden (lots of increased Athlon production potential), AMD's upside potential far outweighs its downside risk, imho...AMD is in the very early stages of accumulation and the bandwagon effect is yet to happen...From a technical perspective, my guess is that gradual accumulation will continue up to $48.50, its all-time high. With a close above $48.50, accumulation will increase carrying it to $63, the upper boundary of its 5 year trading range. Any close above $63 could then set off the bandwagon effect, reinforcing the notion that a paradigm shift occurred at AMD the day the first Athlon was sold in the retail marketplace!