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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (38565)	1/29/2000 10:54:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I2: Thanks. That one shows the three peaks and domed house I was noting in '72 and '73 that is similar to the current one in '99 and '00. It does not provide the peaks and dome from '70 and '71. I have a paper chart that I am looking at from the early 1970s. It is not as precise as I would like. As I noted before, the dominant pattern for me at this point is the broadening top on the INDU which is typical of the end of a primary move. I squinted at the chart from 1973 and there is the same broadening top in 1/73. Just incredible. If the same pattern continues, the INDU would be at 9500 in August 2000. From there we would have the first corrective move to 11300 in November 2000. Then, we would go to 8900 by December 2000 for the second leg down. Next would be the second corrective move that would take the INDU to 10250 in March 2001. Finally we would get the coup-de-grace. A 36.6 percent third leg down to the bottom of the bear market at INDU 6500 in October 2001. Whether something like that could happen is pure speculation. For me, I look for a rally within 250 INDU points or above 10500. That rally should not exceed 11100 or a 50% retracement. However, it could go to 11300 or a 67% retracement. From there it should be downhill. We shall see.