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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rudedog who wrote (77125)	1/30/2000 7:30:00 AM
From: hlpinout	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Rudedog, I have to disagree with you on this one. Many people confuse direct delivery and configure-to-order with internet sales - the two are not the same. DELL does not sell a majority of its systems over the net... Clarity is everything so why is it you can state ideas in a succinct manner as above, and this comment made without expansion says to me as a common man, who cares about internet sales, period. If you read the analysts reports, even they are not a consensus and part of the factor is lack clarity. MC's comments on 15% growth, we're spinning off AV, we'll support NT, we hope to have CFO soon, and so on. Elwood has said it a thousand times before, management has to speak fully and without ambiguity and to me, as if we know nothing about how the system works. Wonder why W.S. doesn't totally respect CPQ? IMHO, confusion and grey areas because not everyone is as deeply grounded as you are (CPQ & Dell maybe others) in stocks they own. Why do you think you are valued here? Because you read between the lines and translate expounding and frequently defending the movement and comments. Nobody has criticized you for providing more insight and info. but it does open avenues of discussions such as the ones you've had with Victor, providing a greater reason for this thread. Babbling hio

To: rudedog who wrote (77125)	1/30/2000 7:49:00 AM
From: hlpinout	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Rudedog, A perfect example. Now I don't always agree with comments made in articles I post (and this guy is redundant), where but there is one critic there are more. This writer has been writing on Compaq for quite awhile. The troops appreciate knowing the battle plan, but to leave 'em hanging inspires dissension when the mission goes a stray. -- Wall Street Wizards CMP Media Inc. - Saturday, January 29, 2000 Jan. 28, 2000 (Computer Reseller News - CMP via COMTEX) -- I don't pretend to be a master of the nuances of what makes a stock hot, cold or a good buy, for that matter. But I have spent most of my professional career assessing high-tech players' market strategy and their position as it relates to the overall industry. Generally, I consider myself to be pretty good at determining whether a company is well-positioned to take advantage of the market it serves. I tend to approach most things with a bit of skepticism. That's not to say I don't believe anyone's marketing message. It's just that I like to understand the holes in the plan. For some reason, I don't expect those who are trying to sell you something to accentuate the weaknesses in a plan. That's why I have to laugh at much of what comes out of these so-called Wall Street analyst firms as it relates to recommendations on particular stocks. Over the past few weeks, I've heard a number of so-called analysts recommend Compaq, for instance, because they claim the company seems to be getting its house in order. My big question is this: How is Compaq getting its house in order as it relates to the overall market? With all the acquisitions Compaq made over the past several years, it is still positioned as a box maker. There is no vision being articulated from the company as to how it will flip its business model to take advantage of the Internet and e-business opportunity. At the same time, the vendor continues to lose market share in not only PCs, but in the more lucrative server market. If Compaq is getting its house in order in some other way, it sure isn't doing a very good job of telling solution providers about it, from what I can see. Then there is Dell Computer. Dell's stock, of course, has had an incredible run over the past several years, but so far it is off by about 25 percent this year. Now think back to the great run-up Dell had throughout the 1990s. A run that made it one of the best performing-if not the best performing-stocks of the past decade, and that was largely because of projected earnings. Ultimately, you buy a stock because of expected earnings, don't you? So why then, given that Dell last week warned that its sales would be down by 8 percentage points this year and that net profit margins would slip below 7 percent from about 7.7 percent, did several Wall Street Wizards raise their recommendations on the stock? This is where my skepticism comes in. In Compaq's case, we need vision, execution and messaging before anyone can legitimately say it is "getting its house in order." In Dell's case, how do lower projected sales and falling profit margins translate into a buy recommendation? Unless, of course, in both instances those who are recommending these stocks might benefit personally if their advice is followed. Might they benefit if everyone buys into the line and drives the share price higher regardless of whether or not the fundamentals support it? You think that could happen? No, no, no, I'm just being overly skeptical. Forgive me. Make something happen. I can be reached at (516) 733-8612 or via e-mail at rfaletra@cmp.com.