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To: marginmike who wrote (1630)	1/29/2000 11:55:00 PM
From: Voltaire	Respond to of 35685

Good post MM, Made a copy. Hope your Galleries are fine, sorry we missed each other in Boca. good night, V

To: marginmike who wrote (1630)	1/29/2000 11:59:00 PM
From: T L Comiskey	Respond to of 35685

Gentlemen.....Great discussion...Many thx T

To: marginmike who wrote (1630)	1/30/2000 12:31:00 AM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

mm re: I dont disagree with you market sentiment, but I do disagree with the mentality that it will be some end all collapse. The big collapses were caused by REAL macro issues.. Just to take the other side of this. Wouldn't you agree that this market has been for the last two years throwing out all past methods of valuations? I do. Since this market is not your fathers market, couldn't this market end in a different way then past markets have ended? Could we be witnessing the start of a bear market on valuation being too excessive? Since the market is tied into the economy more then ever on consumer side, couldn't a extended drop in the market cause the consumers to rein in spending which in turn will cause your macro issues to appear? Warning: I'm too big a believer in the technology lead revolution that we are just beginning to accept that a bear is at hand, the above is merely for discussion purposes only. Comment: I believe the FEDs hands are tied, they don't want the market to drop too far, yet they don't want it to go up to fast. we get only a 25% rate hike, which will cause the market to have less of a bounce then we normally have gotten. I agree with Volt. the length of the drop we have just seen will cause this drop to last longer then past none oct/sept drops, just too much overhead resistance to work though. Greg

To: marginmike who wrote (1630)	1/30/2000 12:42:00 AM
From: Whistler30	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

MM: IMHO you hit the nail right on its demographic head. An excellent book published here in Canada "Boom Bust and Echo" by an economist and demographer named David K. Foot outlines how demographics and in particular the "baby boomers" have affected virtually every aspect of society they touch, from crime rates to real estate value. In Canada by 2006 the entire boomer generation will be 40-60, the peak years for saving and investment. Furthermore, actuaries estimate that this cohort of 10 million will inherit 500-700 billion ($US) dollars - making an assumption by extrapolating those numbers to Canada + USA = 5-7 trillion. The question is, where are they going to park it? IMO - the stock market for 5-10 years before they start acting their age and roll it over into bonds. It's this belief that helps me hang on during times like this. Regards Whistler

To: marginmike who wrote (1630)	1/30/2000 12:56:00 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 35685

1) Americans can't spend the money in our IRA's and 401Ks except after we retire. We can't use it to buy goods, services, education for our children, and most certainly we can't use it to invest in our own small businesses, all we can do with it is buy stock at ever inflated prices. 2)What do you mean the Japanese market was 2-3 times higher? Do you mean the number? It's in yen, not in dollars. 3)You don't even know how to spell. I suppose you are a high school graduate, but spelling "dunce" as "dounce", etc. is hardly proof of that. "Tariff." "Dwindling." When you post and you see red, that's a sign that the words are misspelled.

To: marginmike who wrote (1630)	1/30/2000 1:16:00 AM
From: RR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Hi Marginmike: Good information in your post. Thanks. I believe the comment you made about baby boomers and the market is significant. They will not let the market crash. The boomers I know, like myself, in all kinds of jobs and professions just keep pumping money into the market and see dips as buy times. Some may not have substantial holdings but nonetheless they still buy a little here and there and slowly accumulate wealth, especially in 401K's. I've seen great resilience shown by them in bad times. So, I think your comment in that regard certainly has merit. I was going to Shreveport, Louisiana, the other day on business and stopped at a truck stop for gas in a small south Arkansas town. Went inside to the rest room, came out, was standing there drinking some coffee and on the TV was CNBC. It was early, market just opening. Now usually you don't see CNBC on TV's at truck stops in south Arkansas. I was standing there reading the quotes as they streamed by and a guy about my age came up besides me. He looked real rough, like he did not have a dime to his name. He started commenting on the companies by name as their symbol came across. I struck up a conversation with him. He described how he had just done well on futures. I quizzed him thinking no way was he for real. After a brief discussion, I knew he was for real and we subsequently had a great conversation about commodity trading, options, and his current tech holdings. I was amazed at his knowledge. I asked him if he was concerned about the market pulling back substantially. He said absolutely not and would welcome the buying opportunity. He worked at the truck stop, fixing flats, changing oil, etc. Rick