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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kokomama who wrote (16803)	1/30/2000 12:04:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I'll add my two cents' worth about reaction to the declining portfolios around here. In my investment diary, one of the issues I update is the largest gains and losses in a single day. I do that for two reasons -- for nothing more than mere fun and to remind me that both home runs and gutter balls are part of investing. Both are blips of time relative to the pursuit of sport just as one-day losses and gains are blips of time in pursuit of increased wealth. My biggest single-day gain (in both percentages and dollars) took place on December 29. My biggest single-day loss (also in percentages and dollars) occured on January 4. I would not be surprised to learn that many people around here have experienced similarly huge up-and-down swings in less than one week. If that's the case, what are we to learn from it? The first is that we tend to obsess about the calendar year as a defining point, when we should be obsessing about decades or mutliple decades. It was nothing more than a coincidence that many of our portfolios were at historical highs at the end of the year. Similarly, it was nothing more than a coincidence that since the beginning of the year we have seen signficant declines. Instead of looking at year-end values, take the time to at least look at how your portfolio has done since the beginning of 1999, eliminating entirely its value at the end of 1999. Compare THAT growth to what ever index you choose. I suspect you'll feel a lot more comfortable and proud. (You should be proud. You probably outperformed every high-paid mutual fund manager on the planet.) I've seen comments by a few that most of the fundamentals of most of the companies we invest in are as good today as before the decline. If you look closely at the companies you partially own, you'll likely see that many of those fundamentals are improved since January 1. Qualcomm's investment in SnapTrack is an improvement in my mind. Siebel's growth that has been documented since the beginning of the year is an improved fundamental in my mind. I won't bore you with other examples because you get the point. Do your homework about the companies you own and see if you don't feel they are somewhat better companies today than just a few weeks ago. --Mike Buckley