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To: JRI who wrote (9051)1/30/2000 3:45:00 PM
From: Bill Fischofer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17183
 
OT: Oil and Productivity measures

Yes, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia are key to OPEC and the current discipline. As far as Iraq goes, some have made the case that Iraq, which has nearly 25% of the world's proven oil reserves, is essentially serving as a global equivalent to the US strategic petroleum reserve program at this point thanks to the ongoing moratorium on exports. Essential reading in the geoeconomics of oil is Colin Campbell's seminal 1997 work The Coming Oil Crisis. While his theories remain somewhat controversial, I've found they provide a remarkable lens through which to view the big picture of oil's role on the global political stage.

I agree completely that the productivity revolution being driven by the explosion in information technology has left traditional economic measures hopelessly behind in terms of their ability to capture what is really going on. The classical business cycle was driven by oscillations in inventories as companies experienced alternate booms and busts due to capacity shortfalls and gluts. Essentially, because businesses had no real handle on market demand they simply overbuilt until markets were saturated. This glut then lead to price collapses and subsequent recessions which worked off the excess inventory which allowed the whole cycle to begin again. This is the world which economists grew up with and which still forms the basic policy assumptions of central banks around the world. It is fundamentally out of alignment with the new reality of the emerging information economy. To the unending frustration of many, this time really is different.

People are asking who the real winners in B2B ecommerce will be. The answer is the businesses themselves, as well as consumers everywhere. Imagine a world in which automobiles, for example, started to exhibit the same macroeconomics that computers have seen over the past 40 years in which each model year prices are lowered, functionality is improved, and demand and profits increase. Increasing efficiency throughout the "real economy" is the true benefit of the Internet. In the 1950s the building of the Interstate highway system resulted in a huge boom in construction companies but this was but a prelude to the enormous commercial benefits that the users of that highway saw in the decades that followed. Similarly, as the Internet is built out we are seeing enormous gains in companies such as CSCO and EMC which are supplying the essential infrastructure of the net, but these gains will pale next to the gains that the business users of the net will see in the decades to come. The multi-trillion dollar bonanza of B2B ecommerce isn't going to flow into CMRC's coffers. It will flow into the coffers of GE, GM, F, BA, C, MRK, XOM, and thousands of other companies around the world which will garner enormous efficiencies in their use of the net. In addition, just as the Interstate highway system spawned whole new industries and distribution models in its wake, so too will the net do the same. For example, YHOO is to the net what MCD was to the highway system. And this is why companies like EBAY and AMZN will defy their skeptics.

It's no surprise that companies involved in the building of the net such as CSCO, INTC, etc. are among its biggest early exploiters (thus gaining a double benefit of being both suppliers and users) but this is just the beginning and it is why Andy Grove has presciently remarked that in five years all businesses will be Internet businesses or they will be out of business.



To: JRI who wrote (9051)1/30/2000 4:00:00 PM
From: MJ  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 17183
 
JRI

Could you say more about your perception reg. the internet abroad.

Recently, I have been sensing this. And, believe that American companies who can handle the international aspect of the internet will benefit.

Agree about oil prices---the $20. to $30. per barrel mentioned previously would have put the country into a spin in earlier decades. Higher cost per barrel did put our economy into a tail spin in 1972-74. To do comparable damage now the price would have to be much higher than $30.00

mj (not Mark Johnson)