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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (11545)	1/31/2000 1:19:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

I found the stuff below my signature--the very bottom--at the Gabelli site. There are some fearsome charts in the full article. For example, if the markets as measured by P/E, P/Sales, P/CashFlow and several other common ratios were to return to their historical averages, the S&P would have to drop about 50% in value. The regression to the mean on the Naz would be much greater. In market pullbacks, the ratios usually go below the historical mean values during the reign of pessimism at market bottoms. Man, I am really starting to get afraid for how low this market might go. Simple logic suggests that if this is the start of a bear market, then the bottom should be somewhere in the region of at least the historical mean values of the common valuation units (P/E, P/Sales, etc.). Given that this stock market has been characterised by a huge manic bubble in tech stocks, it may be argued that the recoil will be greater. Oh man! Ciao, David Todtman "At the moment, there is great complacency regarding the analogy between the Fed raising rates in August of 1929 and the June 1999 increase. The following is a 9/1/29 quote from the New York Times: "One of the most striking features of the present chapter in stock market history is the failure of the trading community to take seriously the portents which once threw Wall Street into a state of alarm." History tends to repeat when it is least expected." gabelli.com