To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (65289 ) 1/30/2000 4:52:00 PM From: jmanvegas Read Replies (1) | Respond to
QCOM trading down to $60/share puts its market cap at around $40B - this ain't happening unless we get one of the most severe panics in market history. At $80/share, QCOM's cap is around $53B. Let's suppose either scenario happens and the price lingers in the $60-80 range for awhile. This is takeout time - how many companies would like to step up to the plate and buy the whole bag of CDMA & HDR beans for that price? I see a solid congestion in the 92-100 range, which if hit, will bounce visciously to the upside. The problem is overhead resistance in the 120-125 area (480-500 pre-split). Other resistance areas are 140 and the big one of 160. It will take 6-9 months of consolidation to get through these upper level resistance areas where QCOM could then attack its closing high of 179. IMO, the Fed raising rates of 50 basis points would be wonderful for the market and a huge rally would occur. If the Fed raises rates of only 25 points, we are back to the same old thing - the anticipation of each Fed meeting with the prospects of 25 point hikes grinding away at the core of the market. I say let's get it over with but I have the feeling the Fed knows this and is purposely going to grind away at asset values and at margin levels - therefore, I see only a 25 point move. We'll get a bounce either way - but 2 weeks later, we'll be back to the same old song and dance from the Fed and the market naysayers with a 25 point move. AG has been confirmed and he's got 6 months to grind away before the presidential campaign is in full swing - that will be the time for him to sit back and let the markets do their thing. In the meantime, the graybeards at the Fed are going to call the shots and control the ball. Lastly, Clinton is totally out of the picture - he's as lame duck as I have ever seen in politics. Nobody gives a shit what he says or what he does anymore. He's like Queen Elizabeth, but she hasn't slept with Prince Philip in 20 years either. Good luck all.
