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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (59397)	1/30/2000 10:33:00 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

This is the most shortsighted bone this administration has tossed out for public consumption. It is the counterpoint to Gore's idiotic comment 'oil, oil, everywhere', and a nod to the market that 'inflation will be checked.' But it is unsustainable for any period of time. It is also potentially disastrous if OPEC calls this bluff. It also inadvertently maintains uncertainty about future oil prices, thus discouraging non-OPEC development. The question is, will it work? I suspect that traders won't fight (think Au) the SPR and this type of bs -"...the official pointed out that oil could be withdrawn from the reserve at a maximum rate of four million barrels per day." Did he show pictures too? The real question is OPEC's willingness to defy the US and maintain oil at a price at which will support and rebuild their economies. Since the US now thinks $28 oil is too high, and OPEC doesn't seem content with $16 oil, something in the middle might be a compromise. But wouldn't be suprised to see Venezuela, Iraq, or even Iran begin a jawbone war. Of course, if OPEC backs down and doesn't call this bluff, all this bs just means that the oily end of the patch will be the place to be on the shortside near term. And then if we retrace Dec. lows, yet another chance for anomalous valuations.

To: BigBull who wrote (59397)	1/31/2000 1:00:00 AM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 95453

Crude seems to be reacting mildly to the DOE statements, down .37 to 26.85 after 5 hrs of overnight trading. Has anyone noticed the heating oil contracts? Feb is above .90 and expires tomorrow while Mar is around .72. Looks like a huge drop coming in current month HO with milder weather in the east expected. Might turn off some of the political heat. Hard to believe that Washington thinks they have leverage in the international oil arena. We produce 6 MMBPD but need 15 MMBPD. We will probably never be less than 60% dependent on imports again and we are going to try to manipulate oil prices? Incredibly dumb. OPEC won't be hurt. They will just divert product elsewhere. The small producers in the patch and the independents propelling the recovery in the gulf are the ones who could be most hurt by a big release of SPR oil. I think it is just talk that will go away if oil comes down a few bucks. John

To: BigBull who wrote (59397)	1/31/2000 1:37:00 PM
From: dfloydr	Respond to of 95453

Agreed! The only outcome from the WIN program was some lapel buttons that probably would fetch an interesting inflated price at some flea market sale today. The news item I read on this deal stated that the Feds will loan out one barrel of oil now in exchange for an agreement to give back two or three barrels within a year. Never mind discount rates and inflation ... 2 barrels implies a future price of $13.50 3 barrels implies a future price of $9.00 Any oil company taking Clinton's deal is a candidate for huge short selling and a complete management turnover.