Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (38652)	1/31/2000 6:22:00 AM
From: mappingworld	Respond to of 99985

Har har Berney, just wish I could duplicate this on my stock PF! :-) Olga <<Boy, that's one of the best calls I've seen on this thread. :o)>>

To: Berney who wrote (38652)	1/31/2000 6:34:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 99985

Walker Market Letter: W a l k e r M a r k e t L e t t e r January 31, 2000 ............................................... // -- MODEL UPDATE -- // Lowrisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 5 (on a scale of 0-20, with 20 being the most bullish) *** Disaster Avoidance Strategy - 100% in stocks as of 11/2/99 Graduated Strategy - 100% money markets, 0% stocks as of 12/20/99 Timing Strategy - 100% money markets, 0% stocks as of 11/2/99 SuperBear Strategy - 100% in money markets as of 12/14/98 --------- A message from our sponsor ---------- >> You can receive up to $100,000 by responding today << Turn your second home or investment property into cash. Fast and easy qualifying. Apply today with no obligation! Call Nina at 925-518-5217 or mailto:nina.sevilla@gte.net. D.O.C / BROKER. Offer only for California properties. ------------------------------------------------------ No changes in our models. We are still safely on the sidelines. Barring a miracle comeback on Monday, the market had a rough start for the year in January. All of the stock indexes had a down month, and the SP500 was down almost 8%. There is an old saying on Wall Street that says "as goes January, so goes the rest of the year". We researched this a bit and found you could draw some mixed conclusions. But nevertheless, this market's performance in the last month could not have been very encouraging for the bulls. We came into January looking for an intermediate term top despite the market being up at all time highs, and it looks like that is what he got. The primary reasons for our negative outlook were rising rates, and significant bearish internal divergences. We also thought the market had done a bit too much "y2k non-event" pre- celebrating in the last few weeks of 1999. Well here we are a month later and everyone is worried about rates, and the market internals are leading the way down. So far it has almost seemed to be a "stealth correction". The SP500 is nearing that 10% correction level, but until Friday there seemed to be very little concern. Was it because everyone was watching the Nasdaq? Perhaps, but the Nasdaq has been in catch up mode on the downside...it sold off 9.67% from its highs just last week! Our indicators are now starting to hit some very oversold levels, and the market is heading into some key support areas. These factors have us on the lookout for a sharp bounce in the next few days. Normally we would look for it on Monday or Tuesday, but with the Fed expected to raise rates on Wednesday it makes the timing of the bounce a bit harder to predict...and the bounce could come from sharply lower levels. When the bounce comes, it will be powerful and pretty convincing. That is the nature of bear market rallies. We are not about to declare this a bear market just yet, but we DO think that the intermediate term trend is down. And this rally should only amount to a countertrend bounce. So our bottom line is that the trend is down. The charts have taken a beating, the internals are weak, rates are rising, and the psychology on Wall Street looks like it is turning. In other words, this could get ugly. We are looking for a bounce soon, but we don't think it will last long. Right now we want no part of this market. In the meantime we will keep an eye on our model in case we get the "all clear" signal to get back in the market. When we do get that "all clear" signal, we will send an immediate Flash Update to our Walker MarketEdge subscribers. Your free subscription to the Walker Market Letter does not include the Flash Updates that our MarketEdge subscribers get. However, you can get the Flash Updates (along with all our extra MarketEdge issues and our mutual fund picks) by subscribing to the Walker MarketEdge. You can subscribe in a few minutes with our secure online form at: <http://lowrisk.com/marketedge-sub.htm>.