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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William who wrote (16844)	1/31/2000 2:42:00 PM
From: freeus	Respond to of 54805

Thank you, For all of the investors that bought at 200 (the mighty Qcom) though they are perhaps quite unhappy right now, the Gorilla Game means that they do not have to regret buying Qcom, as long as they hold on to their shares. As with Csco, MSFT and all gorillas, even if your enthusiasm erodes your timing ability (assuming no margin calls) your investment will be profitable. Freeus

To: William who wrote (16844)	1/31/2000 3:02:00 PM
From: garyx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I appreciate the understanding response, William. I must be very special, because I bought on the 52 week near-high -- $199 Jan 3! How's that for timing? G

To: William who wrote (16844)	1/31/2000 3:38:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Your choice of dates proves your statement. A different choice of dates would disprove it. Shift to November 1st from January 3rd. Q traded at a low of 55 and closed 56 5/16 that day. 5 days later it was 74 3/4. Then 200 on your first trade day of January. Very costly for the patient investor. Hindsight is 20-20, let's not use it to mislead. The fact is that none of us can time this market, that being said here over and over. And none of us know for sure where it is going to be tomorrow, in 5 days, or 5 weeks. William, I'm not using the issue of timing to mislead in any shape, form or stretch of anyone's imagination. I want to be as up front and honest about it as possible. Maybe I didn't make it clear because I was reflecting back on a post I made over the weekend on this thread. My two children both hold shares of Qualcomm in their UTMA accounts and they get money every December Holiday season and birthday from the grandparents. I use this money to add to their positions when Santa and the birthday rolls around. Based on the appreciation in certain investments including, but not limited to, Qualcomm - I decided that once all the checks were clear and the cash was in their brokerage accounts to wait a little bit to see what happened once we turned the Y2K corner and went into January. I'm no great market timer and don't even pretend to be. I watch the trading ranges of the stocks I follow and try to grasp how the react in various market sentiments to know when to add to my positions. However, since my kids already had Qualcomm shares from May and June of 1999 in their accounts, I was in no hurry to buy at any price. I've watched the markets too many years to know that the ebb and flow always takes place. That's where my mention of 'patience' comes in because I am always adding money to my investments as I continue to save a portion of my income for that reason. Yes, of course if one switches the dates the story changes. However, I was discussing a very real time frame that was the 'real story' for my family and the act of Santa's money going to work. For this reason, I don't need to switch any dates. By the time the cash was ready to be invested and the checks had cleared, it was the first trading day of 2000. I was prepared to wait. Likewise, their birthday money from 1999 could have been put into DoubleClick (a Godzilla company I like a lot) last spring in the $150 to $175 range. I decided to wait. One of my favorites, i2 (which I already had plenty of), went on sale down to the $17 to $20 range because of the Y2K fears for the ERP vendors. I bought both kids some shares because I felt the fears were unwarranted for i2's case. When the Alta Vista spin-off deal took place during the summer and created short term FUD that DoubleClick would go out of business, I was able to invest the money for $70 and $74 a share. In fact, even Grandma became a shareholder. It then ran back up over the previous highs. No fundamentals of the company had changed. Simply market sentiment. Likewise, I have money that goes every month from my income into a 'slush fund' that waits to be deployed into my favorite investments when I see appropriate opportunities. My reality and experience has led me to believe that if one has a group of stocks they like and follow, various opportunities present themselves in the short term to make attractive 'add' points for that 'new' money waiting to go to work. Maybe not every stock, but one or two on the list. Either I'm damn lucky, or my patience has provided for these opportunities to come along. I'm not trying to mislead in any way on this issue. I must point out, that I am discussing adding shares to positions I already have - many which I bought years and years ago. Even though I firmly believe in holding for the long term, if an opportunity presents itself in the short term - I will take advantage of it to add more shares. I was very up front about discussing the issue this weekend on this thread saying that since Qualcomm is one stock in my portfolio which I like very much, the price and PSR was looking attractive for me to put that Santa money to work for the kids. I don't see what is misleading about that. If the opportunity hadn't presented itself, there would be others in the future for some of the stocks I have chosen to invest. BB