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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald B. Fuller who wrote (33934)	1/31/2000 5:18:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Donald, You and I think alike:-) BK

To: Donald B. Fuller who wrote (33934)	1/31/2000 5:45:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

Donald, your track record in AMAT is admirable, but I doubt that the period of time involved includes a bear in the wider market (as opposed to a tech bear, which, as you pointed out, we have seen several of in recent years). There's no question that if you wait long enough, you will overcome the effects of any bear market, but I am getting to the point where it would be a very bitter pill to have to wait years just to get even. So, I am not willing to risk what I have gained just to keep Uncle Sam from getting some of it.

To: Donald B. Fuller who wrote (33934)	1/31/2000 10:00:00 PM
From: Guy Gordon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

RE "AMAT is rising about a 20-25% trend line indefinitely. " I don't think AMAT is that predictable. It's much more cyclic than that. "What would I do with the money that would outperform AMAT over the long term..." CSCO has a much better trendline than AMAT.

To: Donald B. Fuller who wrote (33934)	1/31/2000 11:48:00 PM
From: subodh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Donald, Thanks for sharing.. Compared to you, I'm a newbie. I watched the 95-98 yo-yo and jumped in at 30-26 price range during '97-'98. This is the first 5-bagger in my life. I'm highly tempted to take profits and put them in say Berkshire Hathaway (-40% this year). So, let me ask you/Brian Kerecz a hypothetical question: what brings money to AMAT during the downturn ? Service contracts ? Or is there anything else ? And what were the historic losses in last downturn ? What can be the expected losses in next downturn ? (which I can't foresee :-) Thanks. karsub