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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KurtSS who wrote (11576)	1/31/2000 7:04:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 15132

Kurt re<<<<I do recall him saying, either this weekend or last, that the model indicators could get worse, and cause him to become even more risk averse. Perhaps his model has a next level down of +5% upside/-30% downside which would cause him to go totally to cash.>>>> Or maybe the next level down is the center of the earth<g>. All the parameters he gave of limited upside and greater than 20% downside is what he has previously said about a bear market call from the model. Until Sunday he seems to have been cautious about not using the words "bear market" which raised all sorts of ambiguity in my mind. Sunday he mentioned the term several times leading me to believe his model either gave a bear signal or was so close a few weeks ago that he felt perhaps the mechanics of getting the signal out were such that he needed to call it though with a lighter touch. He did say the previous week that he was able to make the adjustment by selling in his deferred account and gave no indication of going to zero equities or net short. I still think he may have thought of some past history like Garzarelli's sell signal where she was harshly criticized for sending out her "sell all US equities now" alert which left many small investors dumping stuff without regard to huge tax implications. Of course to add insult to injury she was dead wrong so her "sell all" advice which caused enough damage to mark the end of her newsletter shortly after. So either Bob's model didn't quite give a bear signal or he decided between his newsletter and radio audience when it came down to it, it was too unwieldy and could be counterproductive to put everyone in a panic with a sell all advice and when he did his little calculations of up and down scenarios he said hey , this doesn't look so bad going to 60% cash and between deferred accounts and ability to do a little picking and choosing and maybe a little hedging this will work awfully well at protecting his followers. If the opening looks OK tomorrow I'll probably buy some 2beta short fund to go with my SPY short position Marc