To: om3 who wrote (16870 ) 1/31/2000 6:40:00 PM From: tekboy Respond to of 54805
Welcome to the thread and the Game, Steve, and thanks for the bouquets. One of the things you've learned by now, I'm sure, that there are some posters you want to take with a whole shaker of salt (like a certain zoot-suited cash cow!). Your question is excellent, by the way, and one I've struggled with in explaining the game to others. No matter how good the companies we follow are, that is, they still would not necessarily make superb investments if the market were to price their future potential accurately: we need some market inefficiency to profit by, so where does it come from? My understanding is that the investing aspect of the game works because the market as a whole doesn't fully "get" the theoretical logic behind it--i.e., that tornados are unique periods with peculiar logics; that gorillas control the value chain and thus do not have market shares that "revert to the mean," etc. This means that the market is always a bit surprised by the actual track record of gorillas as they rumble through the jungle, and so there are constant pleasant earnings surprises and so forth that cause the stock price to keep adjusting upward again and again. That's why the gorilla game is a quarterly, earnings-report driven strategy, not merely lots of hot air or plausible conjectures about future castles in the air. If the masses ever did become GGers, then yes, the strategy would begin to work less well (as the inefficiency was eliminated), but I don't think we have to worry about that given how fickle and silly most investors are. Finally, I've begun to think there's another aspect to this. Efficient market theory says that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable because it depends on news, which by definition isn't known yet. That implies sort of a normal distribution of news across companies. But the more I've been watching closely, the more "news" seems to be partly an endogenous rather than an exogenous variable--that is, good news seems to appear with striking regularity for good companies. There's an old quote to the effect that "chance favors the prepared man." Well, chance favors the prepared company too, so it may be that efficient market theory ignores more than one kind of increasing returns. Anyway, there are a lot of other people who know much more about investing here than me, so I'll shut up now, if only to avoid getting another poke in the eye from Franq. (Don't worry, he won't see that sentence cause he'll fall asleep before he gets to that part.) later, tekboy@surewasaniceQday.com