SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: om3 who wrote (16870)1/31/2000 6:24:00 PM
From: Peter Sherman  Respond to of 54805
 
welcome aboard, steve - many stanford folks hereabouts -especially some Q folks - IJ always hires lots of stanford engineers -- always can use more smart folks here



To: om3 who wrote (16870)1/31/2000 6:40:00 PM
From: tekboy  Respond to of 54805
 
Welcome to the thread and the Game, Steve, and thanks for the bouquets. One of the things you've learned by now, I'm sure, that there are some posters you want to take with a whole shaker of salt (like a certain zoot-suited cash cow!). Your question is excellent, by the way, and one I've struggled with in explaining the game to others. No matter how good the companies we follow are, that is, they still would not necessarily make superb investments if the market were to price their future potential accurately: we need some market inefficiency to profit by, so where does it come from?

My understanding is that the investing aspect of the game works because the market as a whole doesn't fully "get" the theoretical logic behind it--i.e., that tornados are unique periods with peculiar logics; that gorillas control the value chain and thus do not have market shares that "revert to the mean," etc. This means that the market is always a bit surprised by the actual track record of gorillas as they rumble through the jungle, and so there are constant pleasant earnings surprises and so forth that cause the stock price to keep adjusting upward again and again. That's why the gorilla game is a quarterly, earnings-report driven strategy, not merely lots of hot air or plausible conjectures about future castles in the air.

If the masses ever did become GGers, then yes, the strategy would begin to work less well (as the inefficiency was eliminated), but I don't think we have to worry about that given how fickle and silly most investors are.

Finally, I've begun to think there's another aspect to this. Efficient market theory says that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable because it depends on news, which by definition isn't known yet. That implies sort of a normal distribution of news across companies. But the more I've been watching closely, the more "news" seems to be partly an endogenous rather than an exogenous variable--that is, good news seems to appear with striking regularity for good companies. There's an old quote to the effect that "chance favors the prepared man." Well, chance favors the prepared company too, so it may be that efficient market theory ignores more than one kind of increasing returns. Anyway, there are a lot of other people who know much more about investing here than me, so I'll shut up now, if only to avoid getting another poke in the eye from Franq. (Don't worry, he won't see that sentence cause he'll fall asleep before he gets to that part.)

later,

tekboy@surewasaniceQday.com



To: om3 who wrote (16870)1/31/2000 8:10:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
Steve,

Thanks for joining us! We look forward to having you around, especially if you continue offering such cogent thoughts and questions.

This just sounds like people might have been analyzing these companies incorrectly till now. Now that the book has been out for a while and that threads like this one are gaining lots of readership, won't the market figure it out?

First, when the next recession comes along you'll see that a lot of those people who have supposedly "figured it out" will toss their unemotional, dispassionate approach to investing in lieu of an emotional, passionate approach that gets leads them to unwise decisions. That's one reason the market will always eventually become inefficient even after one of its more efficient periods.

Second, let's assume enough people really do "get it." Knowing how rapidly Gorillas grow over long periods of time, what would be so bad about buying a Gorilla that is fairly valued all the time? Such a stock would still outperform most investments and with an extraordinarily low degree of risk relative to an extraordinarily high degree of safety.

Just my opinion.

--Mike Buckley



To: om3 who wrote (16870)1/31/2000 9:08:00 PM
From: straight life  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
"This just sounds like people might have been analyzing these companies incorrectly till now. Now that the book has been out for a while and that threads like this one are gaining lots of readership, won't the market figure it out? Doesn't it just take a single very well-heeled gorilla gamer to push prices to their proper levels? Or is it that the correct present values are just so high and so sensitive to unforseen future events that the market will always allow for extraordinary returns on these beasts?"

I think, and have thought all along, that the market's been getting it. I've come across the term 'gorilla' in every 3rd business article, while every message board I go to has a sermon, from time to time, on the true meaning of gorilla, etc.

QCOM went up what, 2400% last year? I think the market's been getting it... but will they stick with it? In the teeth of a bear market? Nope.



To: om3 who wrote (16870)1/31/2000 9:53:00 PM
From: Rick  Respond to of 54805
 
Now that the book has been out for a while and
that threads like this one are gaining lots of readership, won't the market figure it out?


I'd say Momentum players still outnumber GG players at least 50 to 1. When Q can go from 200 to 103 in 2 or 3 weeks I can't believe it was due to GG player's actions. As nothing really changed over this period.

The advantage momentum has over GG in attracting followers, is that momo theory gives instant (although unreliable) results, and it takes less effort to understand. So I would say there will always be more momo players than GG players.

- Fred