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To: John Hull who wrote (97951)	1/31/2000 7:03:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Respond to of 186894

[R-squared] Were demand not driven by some common factor, we'd expect a random distribution of correlations about zero. Instead, we seem to get a distribution about a positive number. [bait/Palm]Did I say that? I said only that secular change was the worry. What possible reason would there be for cyclical change in the US during a 6%-GDP-growth quarter? [analyst messenger syndrome] I don't trust IDC/DQ or ML/Osha, but I do consider their positions. [pricing] We agree here. Didn't I ask you for Intel's forecasts in an earlier post? It'd make my task a lot easier. [how respond] I wouldn't be posting here. I'm very Caesar's-wife that way. [Willamette-and-see] Good one. I will be waiting with bated breath. Cheers, -mb

To: John Hull who wrote (97951)	1/31/2000 7:26:00 PM
From: Craig M. Newmark	Respond to of 186894

John, Re: ". . . pretty low R-squared" Forgive me, but I couldn't help running the regressions to check your statement. Using the eleven quarterly growth rates you list in msg. 97768: Asian-Pacific regressed on Americas, R-squared is .1233 and the coefficient is not significant at .10 (one-tail test). Europe regressed on Americas, R-squared is .0742 and the coefficient is not significant at .10 (one-tail test). Japan regressed on Americas, R-squared is .1012 and the coefficient is negative but not significant at .10 (one-tail test). 15-Love, Mr. Hull. Craig

To: John Hull who wrote (97951)	1/31/2000 7:36:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

John & Intel Investors - Re: "Any news on Willamette? There have been a lot of teasing just-you-wait posts by close-to-Intel posters on this thread...And I'm sure there will be plenty more...just you wait and see." Here's some information that may shed some light on the external Data Bus for the upcoming Foster/Willamette and McKinley processors. "Intel is developing a new "quad-pumped" processorbus that is expected to reach a clock speed of 400 MHzwhen running in Intel's next-generation Foster and McKinley server microprocessors, according to industry sources. The platform's basic bus speed will be 100 MHz, which actually is slower than Intel's 133-MHz FSB for the Pentium III. However, Intel will use new technology called "double pumping" to achieve a 200-MHz speed on the bus line, or "quad pumping" to reach a clock speed of 400 MHz, sources close to the company's development efforts said. The technique either doubles or quadruples the number of instructions issued at any one time, effectively allowing two or four times the total data speed on the line. " Paul {==============================} Intel Developing New Bus Design By Jack Robertson, Electronic Buyers' News Jan 31, 2000 (3:01 PM) URL: techweb.com Intel is developing a new "quad-pumped" processorbus that is expected to reach a clock speed of 400 MHzwhen running in Intel's next-generation Foster and McKinley server microprocessors, according to industry sources. Sources contacted last week at the Platform 2000 Conference in San Jose, Calif., said the new frontside bus (FSB) will be common to both the 32-bit Foster and 64-bit McKinley, the latter of which is slated to succeed the Itanium processor. Foster is expected to be unveiled late this year or early in 2001, and will be available with up to a four-processor configuration per server. The device will be supported by the new Colusa chipset, which sources said also is in development. McKinley will debut next year as the full-production version of Intel's IA-64 architecture, after Itanium, formerly known as the Merced processor, is rolled out late this year. The new 128-bit bus will have double the width of Intel's highest current processor FSB, sources said. The platform's basic bus speed will be 100 MHz, which actually is slower than Intel's 133-MHz FSB for the Pentium III. However, Intel will use new technology called "double pumping" to achieve a 200-MHz speed on the bus line, or "quad pumping" to reach a clock speed of 400 MHz, sources close to the company's development efforts said. The technique either doubles or quadruples the number of instructions issued at any one time, effectively allowing two or four times the total data speed on the line. An Intel spokesman said the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company does not comment on unannounced products. Intel, however, has already said that Foster and McKinley will use double-data-rate SDRAM as main memory. By the time the new Intel processors ship in the next few years, DDR module bandwidth is expected to exceed that of the PC2100 specification, which operates at 2.1 Gbytes/s. The slower base 100-MHz FSB will allow the transmission of double- or quad-pumped data without running into interference, reflection, or noise distortions, sources said, while allowing the base bus line to handle data at speeds up to 400 MHz. Intel is dovetailing its pumping technique with its multiprocessor-server architecture, which will connect up to four Foster or McKinley chips on a common bus line. Sources said the common bus will handle instructions concurrently from up to four processors, without one of the chips waiting for execution of its instruction and creating delays on the bus line. In contrast, multiprocessor servers using Advanced Micro Devices' Athlon use a separate point-to-point EV-6 200-MHz bus line to connect each MPU . The server chipset controls parallel operations among the multiple EV-6 bus lines. The architecture is scalable, according to the Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company, so more than eight Athlon chips can be linked for more sophisticated server applications. Sources at Platform 2000 said the Intel and AMD multiprocessing server designs represent such a contrast that they are setting up what could amount to a dramatic market shootout when next-generation systems are launched.

To: John Hull who wrote (97951)	2/7/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

FYI: Kumar/Piper Jaffray on PC demand. "While the short-term outlook is promising, we see storm clouds gathering on the horizon. We believe that the PC market in the mature geographies is essentially comprised of replacement purchases and the incremental penetration opportunity in the emerging markets has been overstated. The net result is that it is very likely that WW PC unit growth rates peak this year. The prolonged period of waning PC industry revenues will shift the industry balance in favor of service and solutions providers." Cheers, -mb