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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Stewart Whitman who wrote (9823)2/1/2000 12:14:00 AM
From: James Clarke  Respond to of 78485
 
NGH owns 80% of Nabisco plus (actually this would be a minus) tobacco liability if RJR goes underwater. You can buy NGH for less than 50% of the value of the underlying value of Nabisco shares, and Nabisco itself is arguably undervalued. Check me on those numbers - I just did a quick look at the financials. 6% yield.

This is a double contrarian - you get a contrarian bet on tobacco and a contrarian bet on a very out of favor food group at the same time. One step removed from bankruptcy. Though one must remember that several companies two steps removed from asbestos went bankrupt in the end.

Would appreciate comments. The financials for NGH look very simple. Quantifying the risk is not at all simple, though.