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To: James Clarke who wrote (9825)	2/1/2000 12:31:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Respond to of 78476

I read somewhere that $25 billion of north american tobacco's $30 billion in operating profit pre-sales and income tax is taken by the governments at both federal and state levels. Can somebody give me my own source?

To: James Clarke who wrote (9825)	2/1/2000 12:58:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78476

Jim, on tobacco risk, government can sometimes choose not to be colossally stupid. Jurors in courts have less flexibility. If court decisions start going the way of asbestos, what NY is doing on bonds doesn't seem too relevant. If it was proven to me that nicotine was known by the companies to be addictive and the product cancer-causing, I might have a tough time myself as a juror finding the Warning Label on a pack adequate warning and use of the product totally the responsibility of the user. Isn't that where we now are?

To: James Clarke who wrote (9825)	2/1/2000 5:32:00 AM
From: Smacs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

The government has too much of a stake in them prospering to put them out of business. At the risk of sounding idealistic, I wonder if maybe there's a chance that the government is actually interested in looking out for the best interest of society (read: the voting public). In such a case, they may have lots to gain by putting Philip Morris and the Big Tobacco out of business. -sm-

To: James Clarke who wrote (9825)	2/1/2000 10:24:00 AM
From: Stewart Whitman	Respond to of 78476

Tobacco/state bonds.... I disagree with your statement that the government has substantial risk associated with letting any tobacco company going bankrupt. If MO and other U.S. companies go bankrupt clearly someone still supplies tobacco products to the consumer. The states would just slap on the same tariff on those suppliers that, effectively, they had MO do for them onto tobacco products as a result of the tobacco settlements. So I don't see government as being particularly stupid if they allow MO to fail. They have only a minor financial stake in this (e.g., difference in dealing with foreign companies vs. U.S.-based MO, increased potential for a black market, and perhaps some temporary disruption in supply/tax collection). But in the end, they will extract their tax from tobacco. What is clear is that they have taken a legal road to tariff the consumer as opposed to a legislative one. As a governor it's probably better to say your AG taxed the tobacco consumer as opposed to you doing it directly. What would be very interesting to consider is if somewhat developed a 'health-risk' free tobacco replacement. I'm sure the government would try to tax this like tobacco. Regards, Stew