To: BigBull who wrote (59472 ) 2/1/2000 10:02:00 AM From: SliderOnTheBlack Respond to of 95453
Bull; E&P producers vs. driller/service - the gap just widened here ie: $10 UPR, $8 XTO etc. I would venture to say that this last retrace of late in the E&P Producers with; $10 UPR, $8 XTO, $20 NBL, $15 EOG, $9 FST has widened the gap to where the E&P's really have much, much more % upside imho, in addition to better present and nearterm fundamentals. This is a patience game here with the E&P's - sentiment will turn and these will explode. The small caps in service/drillers may match the large/mid cap upside in E&P's - but, I will match the risk & fundamentals of those above & their reward - upside; with say SLB HAL CAM SII WFT NE ESV et al. Time will tell - but, individual stockpicking is how one makes the big money here. DO is such a cheap longterm play and in the short term, I think it will soon get upgraded on its laggard valuation status alone. The ONLY thing that hurts DO, is its poor dayrate rollover pricing outlook in the nearterm. FLC as well - is extremely discounted here to its future - "given" earnings capacity & valuation at mid-late cycle. These stocks are the ones to buy here at the turning point of the cycle - the fav's like NE ESV RDC SII WFT CAM BJS ran up to a high expectations valuation imho; the laggards are now the play in service/drillers; or small caps. How many days to the OPEC meeting ? - as this is 90% of the ballgame here. ... let the countdown begin. PS - can you imagine if we get API's showing; say another - 10-12 M boe Crude Oil drawdowns this month going into the OPEC meeting and then OPEC extends cuts; with us then sitting on a historic low domestic inventory level - going into a Global expansion ? OPEC's revenge: $30 crude - live with it !