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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (29)	2/1/2000 3:00:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 33421

John, Two more areas for following the FED.... Dismal Scientist: Economic Analysis and Data for the World dismal.com Financial Markets Center - Front Page fmcenter.org

To: John Pitera who wrote (29)	2/2/2000 2:33:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 33421

Hi John, I got Squirreled.......no 0.50 Well that will hang me out to dry! Found this tid bit. Wednesday February 2, 2:15 pm Eastern Time TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key chart levels NEW YORK, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The following is a selection of comments on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market. LINDY WAI, SENIOR TECHNICAL ANALYST, MCM CURRENCYWATCH EURO/DOLLAR: "We are still in the midst of a bad trend at the moment. Over the next few days, I am seeing a correction on the fall from the $1.02 level to the $0.9665 level back to the $0.9870-$0.9900 level, which is the 38.2 percent retracement of that fall, before the resumption of the mid-term bear trend again. The daily studies are oversold. I think we will break the $0.9665 lows, looking at $0.9550, which is the equivalent of the June 1989 high in dollar/mark of 2.0480. DOLLAR/YEN: "In the overall picture, we are still in the pullback since we touched the low of 101.25 late last year. We are approaching the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the move down from 124.35 to 101.25, which comes in at 110.30. From this level I am still seeing further pullback back to about the 103.30 level again. ``But of course on the longer-term picture, maybe six months, I still favor dollar/yen to go down. On the weekly chart, we are still below the falling trendline from August 1998, so the trend is still bearish.' STERLING/DOLLAR: "We have just made a lower high, so I do favor a move down back to the $1.5830 level. Over the past two weeks, we have seen a high at the $1.6580 level that is right below the falling trendline from October 1998. While it has kept there, we should see further weakness. ``But the $1.59 figure should be broken to confirm further weakness. Otherwise we should see further consolidation trading within this region.' AUSSIE/DOLLAR: "We are still trading within the bear channel from May 1999, although there was a brief spike in the middle of January. On a mid- to longer-term basis, we are still bearish. Over the shorter term period, the big fall last Friday to $0.6225 confirmed further weakness, but right now we are having some consolidation. ``This morning in Asia we couldn't break the 38.2 retracement of the fall from $0.6685 on January 13 to last Friday's low. I reckon a test of the $0.6225 level. A break of this is needed to confirm immediate continuation of the weakness.' JOSEPH KLETTNER, TECHNICAL ANALYST, COMMERZBANK EURO/DOLLAR: "The sell-off from the Jan. 6 peak of $1.0415 continued as prices slipped to new lows at $0.9665. The latest decline from $1.0415 counts as wave 5 within the subdivisions of wave 5's decline from the Oct. 15 high of $1.0912. ``Last week's downward acceleration suggests that the final 5th wave from $1.0415 is also subdividing into a five wave pattern. 'If wave 3 from $1.0415 holds Monday's lows and then pushes up through resistance at $0.9783, then it may be safe to say that wave 3 has bottomed at $0.9665 and wave 4 is underway toward $0.9915, the weekly resistance before wave 5 takes the market to new lows again to complete the subdivision of wave 5's decline from $1.0415. We expect wave 5 to bottom before $0.9542." DOLLAR/YEN: "Friday's decline back to 104.55 from last week's high of 106.22 completed the c-wave of an a-b-c correction from the Jan 14 high of 106.39. From there it was straight up through five four tops at 106.20 on the p&f charts to 107.95. "During that advance, the market took out two key pivots at 106.22/39, which represented the last two swing highs on the short-term 3-day and medium-term 7-calendar day swing charts. "The penetration of these levels reversed the short and medium-term downtrend from 124.75. Friday's rally through 106.39 supports our near-term bullish outlook for a possible 38.2 percent to 61.8 percent retracement of the entire 5 wave decline from the May 1999 high of 124.75, which gives us a retracement target of 110.22/115.77. ``Initial support rests at 106.92 and solid support at 105.94 is the most we would expect on the downside. Initial near-term resistance is seen at 108.69.' DOLLAR/SWISS: "The move last week was most impressive. Long-term objectives were met with ease and the 2 percent trading band was decisively breached on Friday. This indicates that we are in middle wave 3 in a 5th wave extension. "All that's required now is a 4th wave pullback and one more higher high to complete a large wave 1 advance from the April 1995 low of 1.1110. In the meantime, minor support is currently situated at 1.6469. Penetrating this support would suggest that wave 3 has topped and wave 4 is underway toward 1.6255, the weekly support before we can expect wave 4 to bottom. "From there, we should see one more higher high in wave 5 that retests the resistance of the upper 2 percent trading band before the market peaks. Once there, we can anticipate a sharp wave 2 correction which should retrace between 38.2 percent to 61.8 percent of the advance from the 1995 low, which would give us a target of 1.4521/1.3218 where we would expect wave 2 to bottom. "If wave 3 has not yet topped, look for more upside strength but don't expect much more than another marginal new high. Currency bid prices at 1613GMT. All data taken from Reuters with percent change calculated from the daily U.S. close at 2130GMT.