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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (33951)	2/1/2000 12:09:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, How do you reconcile your opinion with the fact that CPQ, GTW, AAPL and DELL have each warned this quarter of shortfalls because they couldn't get sufficient chips to meet demand? Or do you just ignore this information from chip users; and stick with some belief unfounded in any current facts that causes you to hold onto last year's story long after it's dead and gone? Just curious, Ian. P.S. A few of the equipment makers, in their earnings conference calls, have stated that the communications equipment sector growth is so strong that it's beginning to surpass the PC sectors requirements.

To: Big Bucks who wrote (33951)	2/1/2000 12:20:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Big Bucks, thank you for your contrary opinion. I don't know enough myself to make a projection, but am glad the positive forecast is not unanimous. None of that will make much difference to the many B&H investors here. Gottfried

To: Big Bucks who wrote (33951)	2/1/2000 12:21:00 PM
From: Lone Star	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Some good points, and the situation bears watching (as always), but regarding the purchases to date: this was coming out of an unforseen ( again, as always :) downturn, a downturn where capital expenditures were pulled back. So, a good deal of purchases to date have been catch-up ball to some debatable degree. Also, technology upgrades don't necessarily lead to more output. It may, depends on the chip type, but also new graphs show shrinks in the sub-.25 arena have less and less impact on increases devices out relative to prior shrinks. That's why we are even talking about 300mm wafers, because shrinks running out of gas. The good news so far is that the industry has not gone hog wild with companies, and more importantly, countries i.e. Korea staying conservative with new factories. For some reason ( maturity?) the last downturn is actually being remembered this time around. As long as chip demand keeps incresing, and there is no flood of new factories arising all at once as in the past, these are in my mind the requisites for the projected 2-3 steady rise in semi equip business. I like to watch closely the capital budgets, especially changes. Intel , TI, and Tawian have all had positive adjustments so the trend is our friend. So far!

To: Big Bucks who wrote (33951)	2/2/2000 12:04:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Big Bucks,I appreciate your feedback. I agree with your thoughts exactly. Remember, that CEO Morgan stated that he saw the SEMI's and AMAT's growth should continue to approx. 2006. If you include what Dent has stated this growth will continue to approx. 2008-9. Big Bucks, do you still AMAT on its 2 1/2 year cycle like Lester E. has stresses. I see a saturation point or pull back in equipment production-perhaps caused by interest rates. Yes, I am a believer, and you and I recall got in during the $20, but, but, sold to early going to CSCO, EMC and LU. However, I shall return if the cycle resumes. Right now, IMO, the SEMI SECTOR is over bought. After, an AMAT split and a lowering of the BTB # the SEMI's probably pull back. Remember, a $1 pull back after split equals a $2 prior to split so drops in ones cash investment can be quick. Big Bucks, Jacob, Tito, Brian, Lester E., John L. what are you thoughts regarding the SEMI cycles? Will they or will they not continue? Just think, about a couple years ago Brian was moaning about buying AMAT at $54 on Margin. Oh, how a couple of years make. Right, Brian? Just my opinions. Paul