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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: straight life who wrote (16916)	2/1/2000 12:24:00 PM
From: James Sinclair	Respond to of 54805

Win 2K may hasten thin-client decisions By Dan Briody and Bob Trott, Infoworld 02/01/2000 Next month's release of Windows 2000 may prompt user companies to make critical decisions about the future of their desktop strategies and computing architectures. As users decide whether to go through the expense and aggravation of upgrading their desktop PCs to make them suitable for Windows 2000 Professional, thin-client vendors are using the opportunity to press their argument for abandoning the "fat-client" model. Citrix Systems Inc., for example, will announce that it has integrated Project Charlotte, a Web-based version of its Program Neighborhood, with its MetaFrame for Windows 2000 and Windows Terminal Server products. Charlotte will give users access to any application without requiring HTML, scripting, Java or other Web-based techniques for delivering applications. As user companies increasingly shift toward centralized computing, the idea of upgrading desktops for Windows 2000 is giving information technology departments pause for thought. "It looks to me that an awful lot of people are going to have to upgrade or replace their (desktop) systems to support Windows 2000, and why would you upgrade the machine to a heavier OS when the trend is ... (to move) things to servers?" said Dan Kuznetsky, an analyst at International Data Corp. (IDC) in Framingham, Mass. Rob Enderle, a vice president at Giga Information Group Inc. in Santa Clara, Calif., said older systems are particularly vulnerable to Windows 2000 upgrades. "Windows 2000 will have problems with about 15% of (existing) machines," Enderle added. However, one user said his company may face even more work than that. "We plan 33% replacements, and ... there will be some that need memory or BIOS," said Brian Jaffe, an IT director at a New York-based company with an all-Windows 9x shop. IDC estimates that at the end of last year, the installed base for Windows 9x was 182 million, and only 28.1 million for Windows NT. Those figures, compared with 138 million for Windows 9x and 17.2 million for Windows NT at the end of 1998, show that Windows 9x should stay relevant. But for large corporations with less powerful machines running Windows 9x, there's another option: Using Windows 2000 on the server and converting existing desktops into semi-thin clients. In addition, the consensus that most IT shops will wait as much as a year and a half to adopt Windows 2000 will give these Web-based applications time to take hold. "Our estimation of how Windows 2000 will be adopted is fairly slow," Kuznetsky said. "While that trend is going on, we (also) see the growth in Web-oriented applications, and as they move in that direction, the tie to Windows 2000 is lessened." According to Giga, installing or upgrading to Windows 2000 Professional will cost anywhere from $970 to $1,640 per desktop system. Installing or upgrading servers will cost approximately $107 per client, based on a 5,000-user network, Giga reasoned. That price, Enderle said, is worth it when the potential benefits are considered. Other factors include businesses that are on a two- or three-year hardware replacement cycle, he added. "We know customers are buying new hardware (on a regular basis)," said Craig Beilinson, lead product manager for Windows 2000 at Microsoft. "Customers recycle about one-third (of their hardware) each year. That's a very sure way to migrate over to the desktop." But some analysts feel the momentum is shifting from fat clients. "The argument in favor of thin clients gets better all the time," said Roger Kay, a PC analyst at IDC.

To: straight life who wrote (16916)	2/1/2000 1:07:00 PM
From: shamsaee	Respond to of 54805

There was a discussion on the Qualcom S&P thread.Given the ambiguity of T q4 report. 400,000 subs,when the number from 3q to 4q were compared. Best Regards, Shahram

To: straight life who wrote (16916)	2/1/2000 1:27:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

RE: JDSU It's a King, GG, it always was a king, and it always will be a king. It is the kind of King that is so strong that you can treat it, from a buy standpoint, like a Gorilla. You just have to realize that: 1) It grows much faster than a Gorilla, 2) Is not as undervalued as a Gorilla, 3) Has an "Achilles Heel", it can be commoditized. I just realized that point #2 has not been explored on this thread. IMO, Kings tend to be much more fully valued than Gorillas; the market understands them better. This means that you cannot be as smug about getting a good buy on a King, you can overpay.

To: straight life who wrote (16916)	2/1/2000 4:24:00 PM
From: 100cfm	Respond to of 54805

SL <<Just curious; anyone know T's equivalent numbers? Especially their 4th quarter subscriber growth?>> After increasing their advertising, the official number was 440,000 which was less then the 473,000 they did in the second quarter. Given the fact that the 4th Qtr is suppose to be the strongest coupled with the fact that they went all out in advertising and still fell short of the 2nd Qtr is not a good sign for T. Also the average revenue per user dropped form 66.80 to 67.90. Compare that to Sprint who added 1mm in the Qtr while maintaining ARPU. 100