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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian P. who wrote (38758)	2/1/2000 1:46:00 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Brian ... I asked a similar question over the weekend. My own opinion is that if there is a 25 point hike the market headfakes up ... if there's a 50 point it headfakes down... fwiw ... I will get in and out with reverse trades ... and cross everything for luck !! Stephen

To: Brian P. who wrote (38758)	2/1/2000 5:09:00 PM
From: Philipp	Respond to of 99985

The Fed knows that the stock market is experiencing a bubble of unprecedented proportions and they really would like to get that under control. They have miserably failed to do so in the past. Considering the market action this week, sharply up despite the general expectation of a 25 interest hike, they must now be seriously considering a 50 b.p. raise. That would tell the market that they finally mean business. On the other hand, they are probably afraid that that could tip the market over and cause a crash (Greenspan has not yet been confirmed by the Senate, has he?). My guess therefore is that they will raise by 25 b.p., but indicating that further tightenings are ahead, possibly even before the next FOMC meeting. That, in my view, is their only chance of succeeding in this high-wire act. The market could still crash, if Friday's data are too good.

To: Brian P. who wrote (38758)	2/2/2000 12:59:00 AM
From: advinfo	Respond to of 99985

IMO, there seems to be a mixed camp on this one. Those that feel that .25 is an adequate "air brake" and those that feel that a .50 is lets roll up the sleeves, play hardball in the ST and not drag out the inevitable. Either way I feel there is enough complacency to let the mkt go whisteling past the graveyard again no matter what happens on Wed. IMO tomorrow will not be real a ST or LT catalyst. The real hammer will strike with much less warning/visibility.