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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 10K a day who wrote (38793)	2/2/2000 10:40:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 99985

Impristine : take 1 :" 3 steps and a stumble rule ". ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Why I'm bearish for ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ now ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ 'Sell' call still looks on target ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ By Cedd Moses, CBS MarketWatch ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Last Update: 1:05 PM ET Feb 1, 2000 ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Commentary ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Join the discussion ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ cbs.marketwatch.com ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- The Intermediate-term ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ sell signal my model gave Monday of last week is still ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ looking good.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ It is somewhat redeeming after the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ surprising amount of angry mail that I ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ received following my bearish ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ outlook. See last week's column. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Considering the magnitude of last ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ week's market plunge, bullish ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ sentiment remains high, and continues to concern me. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ After all, the market is still over-valued, the Fed is ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ about to raise interest rates for the fourth time (anybody ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ recall theÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ "three steps and a stumble" rule? ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ ) and, ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ contrary to public opinion, stocks do not rise vertically ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ forever.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Most of the negative mail I received suggested that I ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ was an eternal bear; the fact is that I was a lonely bull ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ when this advance began back in October of 1998. I ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ again felt a tinge of loneliness when turning bearish and ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ moving out of this market. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ All of my indicators are telling me that this decline has ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ further to go. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Monday's rally came on low volume ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ and with poor breadth. It was not ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ surprising that the S&P 500 found ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ some temporary support at its 200-day ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ moving average.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ So goes the year ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ But the bombardment of stock offerings ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ on the way and the sharp break in ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ market momentum leaves little room to ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ envy the current position of the U.S. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ stock market. The first month of the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ year is complete and as the old adage ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ says: "As January goes, so goes the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ year."ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ January was hardly a garden party for ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ the S&P 500, finishing down about 5 ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ percent. And Yale Hirsch, publisher of ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ "The Stock Trader's Almanac," has ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ noted that every down January since ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ 1950 was a prelude to flat performance at best. And in ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ several instances it led to new or extended bear ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ markets.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Tsunami of margin calls ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The current astronomic level of margin debt suggests ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ that a declining market could wipe out millions of ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ investors. A sharp sell-off would create a tsunami of ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ margin calls and forced selling by otherwise "long-term ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ investors." Remember that markets fall much faster than ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ they advance, and the Nasdaq rose in a virtual blow-off ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ during the last few months of 1999.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Don't be surprised by the severity of this decline; it ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ could be brutal despite the tendency for the stock market ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ to advance in election years. I remain humbly on the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ sidelines awaiting positive signs that the decline has run ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ its course, such as capitulation and lower interest rates. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ I still own a few biotech, semiconductor and oil service ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ stocks, but I have those balanced with plenty of short ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ names for protection.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ If you're after leadership, the defensive utility stocks ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ have held up best on the decline. This is typical of ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ market corrections, but these stocks do not give enough ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ inherent growth possibilities to meet my strict screening ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ criteria. TA =========================================== Message #38793 from impristine at Feb 1 2000 7:25PM I don't know what it said...But it Just About Made Me Seizure. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Good Trading.ÿ

To: 10K a day who wrote (38793)	2/2/2000 10:40:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Impristine: take 2: "ÿ shocking drop " in oil reserves: cbs.marketwatch.com ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Crude supplies drop 10 million ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ barrels ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ And: Data on crude stocks 'unbelievable', ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ analyst says ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ By Myra P. Saefong, CBS ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ MarketWatch ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Last Update: 6:15 PM ET Feb 1, 2000 ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Agriculture Outlook ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Futures News ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures are poised to ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ surge early Wednesday after the American Petroleum ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Institute posted an unexpected 10.4 million barrel ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ decline in last week's crude supplies. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The latest data is "unbelievable," Phil Flynn, vice ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ president of Alaron.com said. The draw in crude ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ supplies has "shock-value" and will "support the whole ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ complex tomorrow," as long as the Department of ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Energy's report, slated for release early Wednesday ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ confirms the numbers, he said. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Ahead of the news, on the New York ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Mercantile Exchange, March crude ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ gained 58 cents to $28.22 a barrel ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ closing at nearly the same level it was ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ at a week ago. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ March heating oil gained 2.85 cents, or ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ 4 percent, to 77.19 cents a gallon, ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ while March unleaded gasoline rose ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ 1.96 cents to 77.67 cents a gallon. See ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ latest commodity prices. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ March crude soared 40 cents in ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ overnight trading just after the supply ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ data was released, Flynn said. It ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ almost appears like the API switched ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ the data on crude with distillates, ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ because there is no apparent ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ explanation for the huge decline in ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ crude ÿinventories, he said. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ After the market closed, the American ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Petroleum Institute reported an enormous, 10.4 million ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ barrel decline in crude oil supplies for the week ended ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Jan. 28. This compares to expectations for a rise ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ between 1.5 million and 2.5 million barrels, according ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ to a Bridge News survey of analysts. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ U.S. crude supplies, as of last week, total 281.2 million ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ barrels. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Given that the API numbers are subject to frequent ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ revisions, the market will see of the Energy Department ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ confirms the data and if it does, crude prices could ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ surpass $29 a barrel again, Mark Bock, an economist at ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ the Dismal Scientist said. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Distillate supplies lost 2.4 million barrels last week, the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ API said, but the market was looking for a 5 million to 6 ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ million barrel decline. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The API's measure of gasoline stocks ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ rose 1.4 million barrels, defying ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ expectations for an increase of as much ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ as 3 million barrels. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The latest data on crude was even ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ more surprising, considering that ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ refinery output rates rose to 87.7 ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ percent last week, from 85.7 percent a ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ week earlier. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ On Tuesday, crude futures closed 2 ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ percent higher on comments from the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Department of Energy that eased the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ market's fears of possible oil reserve sales.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ "The market sold off early yesterday as word spread we ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ would use the reserve oil, only to firm later when Bill ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Richardson backed off," a daily report from ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Chicago-based Alaron.com said.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Early Tuesday, U.S. energy secretary Bill Richardson ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ said market forces rather than intervention should set oil ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ prices, Bridge News reported. He also said that a ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ decision to use oil from the strategic petroleum reserve ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ is "not imminent" even though he does believe oil prices ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ are currently too high. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Also supporting the market Tuesday was late news that ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Venezuela's largest oil workers union, Fedepetrol, ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ authorized its leadership to call an indefinite strike ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ when it deems necessary, Bridge News reported. Carlos ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Ortega, the president of the workers union, said that a ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ strike would happen with in a few days unless the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ government takes back its decree to halt collective ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ bargaining. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ In other energy news, March natural gas rose 3.7 cent to ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ $2.699 on Nymex. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Analysts at Thomson Global Markets expect Wednesday ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ afternoon's weekly report on supplies to reveal a ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ decline between 150 billion and 170 billion cubic feet. TA ---------------- Message #38793 from impristine at Feb 1 2000 7:25PM I don't know what it said...But it Just About Made Me Seizure.

To: 10K a day who wrote (38793)	2/2/2000 10:48:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 99985

Impristine: take 3: The Dismal Scientist" Phillips curve, alive and well ".ÿ :-) ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ dismal.com ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ It is also evident, albeit with some work, that the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Phillips Curve is useful to describe national labor ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ market conditions. Consider compensation per ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ hour, which despite some methodological ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ limitations is the most accurate measure of ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ compensation since it attempts to count stock ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ options and signing and retention bonuses. These ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ are becoming increasingly more prevalent forms ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ of compensation not measured in average hourly ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ earnings or the employment cost index. Since the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ nation's jobless rate fell consistently below 5.5% ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ nearly five years ago, labor compensation growth ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ has accelerated from 2.0% to nearly 5.0% ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ currently.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The growth in compensation per hour has indeed ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ decelerated over the past year, but this can likely ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ be explained by a shift in inflation expectations. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ This resulted from the plunge in actual inflation ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ that occurred during the global economic and ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ financial crisis. As commodity and import prices ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ collapsed, U.S. consumer price inflation fell as ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ low as 1% and there was serious discussion ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ regarding the possibility of outright deflation. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Realizing that inflation was low and dormant, ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ workers became much less aggressive in their ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ wage demands. With the global economy on the ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ mend, commodity prices up, and import prices ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ stabilizing, CPI inflation has accelerated to over ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ 2%. Workers will likely soon respond by asking ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ employers for larger pay increases.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Also consider that labor costs are rising in new ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ ways that are not being counted by any labor ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ compensation measure. Nonpecuniary forms of ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ compensation, such as more flexible work hours ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ or work at home, are becoming more prevalent. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Employers are also devoting increasing resources ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ to training and educating their workforce. Facing a ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ progressively tighter labor market, employers ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ have been increasingly hiring workers with lesser ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ skills than those who they already employ.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Conclusionÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The economy cannot maintain its current pace of ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ growth for much longer without the labor market ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ continuing to tighten, resulting in substantially ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ more monetary tightening and significantly higher ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ long-term interest rates. If productivity growth is ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ to accelerate even more and forestall this ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ eventuality, it needs to do so now, because labor ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ compensation growth is set to accelerate. It is ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ clear that when unemployment is low and falling, ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ labor compensation growth accelerates. This is ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ abundantly evident at both the national and state ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ levels. The Phillips Curve is alive and well, and ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ debates as to what unemployment rate would ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ trigger accelerating inflation are increasingly ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ irrelevant. At the current 4% unemployment rate, ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ that time is at hand.ÿ TA --------------- Message #38793 from impristine at Feb 1 2000 7:25PM I don't know what it said...But it Just About Made Me Seizure.