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To: jmanvegas who wrote (65791)	2/3/2000 8:58:00 PM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Re: your read of the markets over the next nine months and interest rates. What do you make of what is going on at the long end? Some of it is shorts getting hurt and some is the growing realization that the 30 year bond could be going the way of the dodo. However, what I am wondering is whether any of it is more fundamental, and if so, how much and what does it mean re: the future direction of interest rates and the economy. Two specific things come to mind. One is that the fed may get squeezed by events like a year ago September. What does this do to their plan to keep raising rates? The second is the fact the inverted yield curve does not help them in slowing the economy. Where long rates rising in anticipation of rate hikes helped them, what is happening now if it keeps on, will work against the effects of hikes in the short term rate. I more and more get the feeling we are in very unchartered territory with the economy and the market; a lot more than even the record stock indexes indicate. Looking forward to your views on this.