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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (59550)	2/2/2000 9:49:00 AM
From: terry richardson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

To the board: This might be of interest, haven't seen it posted yet. From International Harry Schultz Letter: gold-eagle.com FLASH: Y2K striking oil patch. Venezuela halts gasoline exports from 3 refineries. Another to be restarted after a shutdown. 1 of biggest catalyst-crackers in western hemisphere shut (system failure) at Amuay refinery; hope to restart in 30 days. It supplies US east coast. The 1972 oil crisis was from 4% reduction over 4 wks. Motiva's Norco,LA oil refinery shutdown; power outage. Nigeria oil plant down. Coastal Eagle Point, NJ refinery down; generator power loss. Coastal Corpus Christi refinery FCC problem. Equilon Wood River, IL refinery down. PDVSA/Hess divert oil cargo back to Europe, was US-bound. BP Amoco Yorktown down, mechanical failure. Big media silence, like the 3 monkeys: see/hear/say nothing. U know why!

To: BigBull who wrote (59550)	2/2/2000 10:15:00 AM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

On API, Iraq, and the OPEC extension... Remember all the way back to Turkey Day '99 - Iraq stopped shipments for three weeks. By my calculations (using 40 days Gulf to Gulf) that "stoppage" should have reached the API numbers January 11. So I was off by two weeks?? If these "unexplained draws" last one more week than the Iraqi stoppage might be the explanation. Speaking of Iraq - nice how the US has maneuvered Saddam into the driver's seat. Seriously, what will Clinton/Gore do if he continues to reject inspectors - bomb his oil fields? Saddam can raise the world price of oil $2.00 at will. Does he have leverage in a US election year?? Goodbye arms inspectors. When will OPEC increase production? They will certainly stone wall until the end of the US winter. Nobody likes to be accused of making people freeze. They can credibly waffle until then. But we are really just beginning to see what the real storage levels are. OPEC should only move when the storage draws are convincing. In August we heard that Cushing was overflowing. The influence on price of jawboning on both sides in the recent weeks suggests that we are somewhat removed from having eliminated the surplus. Six more weeks of speculation. Odds 70 - 30 in favor of OPEC continuing cuts in March.