Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (17020)	2/2/2000 4:43:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Re: QCOM, ERICY, DoCoMo, Wireless Data, Bluetooth - Great Photos Wireless data is coming (heck it is here): Check out ERICY Phones and terminals (including DoCoMo) here ericsson.se Check out the concept phones here: ericsson.se All smaller than a MOVING van <g> Note: I included QCOM in the subject header because of todays announcement. QCOM & ERICY: Together the World - EriQ -

To: gdichaz who wrote (17020)	2/3/2000 1:41:00 PM
From: Eric Jacobson	Respond to of 54805

Re: HLIT Cha2, I think it is fair to say looking at HLIT as solely a cable/fiberoptics company is too narrow. In fact, the company used to be called Harmonic Lightwaves, but they changed their name to relect that they aren't just in the fiber-optic business anymore. They have a subsidiary in Tel Aviv that develops most of their digital product line for the satellite/wireless platforms. I wouldn't say they are concentrated in Eastern Europe. However, most of their business is currently outside the US. I'm not sure, but I think this may be because there is a more substantial cable plant in the US that can be more easily upgraded. Only about 4% of the company's revenues this past quarter was attributable to their digital satellite/wireless products. My knowledge of this segment of their business is about equally proportionate (that's why I didn't focus on it). While it is a small portion of their business, revenue from this segment is currently growing slightly faster than their cable business, so it is likely to become more important in the future. Some people speculate that the purchase of DiviCom is intended to strengthen their position in this area. Here's what I do know: They seem to be having more success with satellite than wireless. They have sold software and hardware to several customers that provide satellite broadband. Wireless (Local Multipoint Distribution System or LMDS, and Multichannel Multipoint Distribution System or MMDS) has been much slower to take off even though some consider it to be the holy grail of the last mile. Speedus.com operates the first commercial LMDS system in the US in NYC using equipment from Harmonic Data System based upon a special licence granted by the FCC. The FCC auctioned off a big chunk of LMDS spectrum last year and the big winners were WinStar and NextLink. They have to provide "substantial" service within 10 years. From what I gather, there are still significant technical hurdles to overcome before this can become a mass market. For example, the LMDS signal can be disturbed by foliage and rain and the providers have to get permission to mount repeaters on buildings within the service area. In addition, the LMDS systems provide "downstream" broadband with the return path through the telephone line, so a truly 2-way system is still in the wings (this isn't as bad as it sounds - many cable plant upgrades to provide broadband have been done on the cheap with the return path through the telephone line. Cable companies will eventually need to go back in and retrofit if they want to provide truly interactive applications, like video conferencing). WinStar is currently marketing their service for special business applications and to building owners similar to how T-1 lines have been marketed. Over time this may change. For example, MSFT just invested a chunk of change in WinStar - this the same approach they've taken to encourage innovation and deployment of cable broadband. Cisco, Motorola, and Lucent have all positioned themselves to play in this market. I think that, in addition to the technical hurdles, the part of the value chain that's missing in the satelline/wireless market, in the US anyway, is a name-brand service provider, like an @Home. I've always felt that AOL might step in and fill this space. Their keen interest in the cable open access issue and recent decision to purchase TWX, however, signals that they think cable provides the easiest broadband path, at least for the time being. I hope this helps. The satellite/wireless segment is a tough nut to crack, which is probably a pretty clear indication the value chain isn't complete. Eric