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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (34000)	2/3/2000 8:39:00 AM
From: blake_paterson	Respond to of 70976

Hi Gottfried & Thread: 4 possible / probable reasons why the Periodicity and Amplitude of the semi-equip cycle is likely changing as we speak: 1. Game sales - Sony PS2 is going to go through the roof. More will come from Sega et al, thereafter. These things are morphing into devices. 2. Comm devices 3. Devices everywhere else (homes, cars, handhelds) - I know, I know, y'all have been talking about #2 & 3. 4. The continued "need for speed" (term used generically) - both in PC memory and subsytems, but also in fab technologies (300 mm, .18 mu). Of course dips will occur, but I am certain that the cycle has changed fundamentally (changed, NOT disappeared). IMHO, the volume of demand from these high growth "supplemental markets" will increase the period (reduce frequency) and reduce peak-to-trough amplitude of the cycle. I have held firm to this belief since my last re-entry, in Oct thru Dec 1998. Thankfully, I Have kept all my CYMI, KLAC, AMAT and others since then. FWIW, I don't think we are nearing "the peak", I only wish I knew when (2001, 2003..???)... I hope you are all doing well. I continue to enjoy your posts. Thanks esp to Gottfried (B:B), Paul V (PnF) and Brian (for his objective optimism). Regards BP