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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (13185)	2/3/2000 9:19:00 AM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

Mr. Fun, What is your opinion of the following statement? "Competitive Issues The competitive landscape consists of traditional transmission vendors attempting to enhance their current generation product families with the functionality described above and two relatively new equipment companies?Corvis and Qtera?with products especially optimized for ultra long-haul high-density optical transport. Among the set of large, existing vendors, CIENA, Lucent and Nortel have announced their intentions to deliver products for this market opportunity at some point in the future. In our opinion, among these three vendors, competition for RFPs on large backbone overbuilds will mainly come from Nortel Networks. Nortel dominates the OC192 integrated SONET/WDM marketplace currently with more than 90% market share and has announced its intentions to bring to market next-generation WDM and O-XC systems. We believe that commercial availability of these announced products is 12?18 months away. We do not expect Lucent or CIENA to present major competition in these same accounts. Instead, we believe smaller CLECs, without as large bandwidth demands, will remain with CIENA. Lucent has yet to bring current generation technology to market (its OC192 product has been in development for 66 months and is still not shipping) and will be even later (12 months behind Nortel) in next-generation WDM and optical networking. Since large backbone carriers want to overbuild their transmission networks starting early next year, we believe that the two new vendors mentioned above, Corvis and Qtera, will dominate this marketplace as they are both shipping beta units currently to these carriers. In addition, both of these companies have the capabilities in place to deliver the volume that the likes of Williams and Qwest (QWST $40-11/16) will likely require. December 21, 1999 Robertson Stephens maintains a market in the shares of CIENA Corporation; Qwest Communication International Inc.; MCI WorldCom, Inc.; and Tellabs, Inc. Additional information is available upon request. BancBoston Robertson Stephens Inc. (?Robertson Stephens?) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Fleet Boston Corporation and is an NASD member and a member of all major exchanges and SIPC. The information contained herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry or security. Although opinions and estimates expressed herein reflect the current judgment of Robertson Stephens, the information upon which such opinions and estimates are based is not necessarily updated on a regular basis; when it is, the date of the change in estimate will be noted. In addition, opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice. This Report contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ significantly from the results described in the forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause such a difference include, but are not limited to, those discussed in "Investment Risks." Robertson Stephens from time to time performs corporate finance or other services for some companies described herein and may occasionally possess material, nonpublic information regarding such companies. This information is not used in the preparation of the opinions and estimates herein. While the information contained in this Report and the opinions contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, Robertson Stephens has not independently verified the facts, assumptions and estimates contained in this Report. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this Report. Robertson Stephens, its managing directors, its affiliates, and/or its employees may have an interest in the securities of the issue(s) described and may make purchases or sales while this report is in circulation. BancBoston Robertson Stephens International Ltd. is regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority in the United Kingdom. This publication is not meant for private customers. The securities discussed herein are not FDIC insured, are not deposits or other obligations or guarantees of Fleet Bank or BankBoston N.A., and are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of any principal amount invested. Unless otherwise noted, prices are as of Tuesday, December 20, 1999. Copyright  1999 Robertson Stephens.