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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11642)	2/2/2000 10:13:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Brinker: Sage or Senile? cbs.marketwatch.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11642)	2/2/2000 11:38:00 PM
From: Trebor	Respond to of 15132

>Do you agree and, if so, how many rate hikes of 25 basis points do you expect we will need to slow this thing down a bit?< I'm not a student of the history of interest rates, nor do I want to be. So does anyone know if there has been a situation like this before...i.e. a bull market that won't die no matter how many interest hikes get dumped on it? And if so, how many interest hikes did it finally take?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11642)	2/3/2000 7:57:00 AM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa ...we became a global economy more so than ever before. It seems that there is an incredible amount of momentum behind this world economy now. Do you agree and, if so, how many rate hikes of 25 basis points do you expect we will need to slow this thing down a bit? The interconnections in the global economy have always been in place but has received more media attention in the past couple of decades. The late Wassily Leontieff, Nobel Laureate in Economics of Harvard and New York University, famous for input-output economics, has work dating back decades showing global interconnections. This economy refuses to slow. I expect a rate hike in March and one in May of one quarter point. I would have expected one in April but there is no FOMC meeting in April. The interesting item about the rate hikes is that it takes anywhere from six months to a year or a year-and-a-half to filter through the economy before the effects are really felt. I suspect we get at least another rate hike sometime during the summer and if the economy slows a bit the Federal Reserve will try not to move before the election. Did Greenspan strike you as the kind of guy who would just give us 25 basis points at planned meetings or do you think there is a surprise out there somewhere? Unless the economic data comes in extremely strongly between Fed meetings especially with regards to inflation, there will be absolutely NO surprises. Greenspan understands that financial market adjustments need to be calm and orderly. In 1994, he repeatedly warned of higher rates until he was blue in the face, the bond market did not believe him, and when rates rose repeatedly one of the great bear markets of all time started in the bond market that year. Some bonds were down 40% plus that year. I find it surprising, perverse?, that as rates rise bit by bit the equity markets respond more and more positively to the news thinking that inflation is or will soon be under control. The equity markets are so confident Greenspan will engineer this slowdown instead of slowing down they seem to pick up. Interesting to watch. Bottom line: the economy is extremely complicated to analyze and what we think is happening is not at times clear until six months later when we look back. On another note, I recommend all here read the Financial Times of London. It comes out on the net 9pm EST. It provides a more global and differing perspective than the WSJ.